Growing security dynamics in Afghanistan

Tehrik-e-Taliban

By Dammika Adhikari

Existing external environment

The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 paved the way for the Taliban to seize power in Afghanistan after 27 years. Despite the Doha agreement with the Taliban, which aimed at establishing good governance based on religious concepts and respecting human rights, this has been disregarded by the present Taliban government. Turkey and Qatar have recognised Taliban rule, but the majority of countries in the global north and south, international organisations, and stakeholders are closely monitoring the behaviour of this regime. 

The strict implementation of Sharia law has hindered women’s participation in various sectors, significantly affecting the industrial sector, healthcare, women’s self-employment, and education. Nevertheless, several external challenges persist in the country, critically impacting its stability.

Transnational terrorist networks

Recent clashes along the Durand Line between Taliban forces and Pakistani security forces, as well as clashes along the border with other countries, have reshaped the security landscape in the region. The Taliban rulers have been accused of providing a safe haven for transnational terrorist organisations such as Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP) and several terrorist groups operating in the Central Asian region. Tehrik-e-Taliban has carried out numerous attacks in tribal areas inside Pakistan, significantly affecting the country’s internal security environment and political stability. Today, Pakistan’s deteriorating economy has further exacerbated the security situation. 

There are several reasons for the relationship between the Afghanistan Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban. Both parties aspire to introduce Sharia law in their respective countries and establish Islamic states. In history, Pakistani Taliban fighters joined with Taliban fighters to seize power in 1996. By 2007, when Tehrik-e-Taliban was formed, many fighters joined from the Afghanistan Taliban. Their strong bond remained intact as they fought against NATO forces together. Additionally, the Afghanistan Taliban regime used Tehrik-e-Taliban as a bargaining tool to gain official recognition for their current government. However, it failed to win over the international community. 

Pakistan has historically aimed to maintain a violence-free western border and a pro-Pakistani government. In 1996, Pakistan was among the few countries that recognised the Taliban. In 2021, when the Taliban returned to power, most of the Pakistani tribal areas celebrated this new regime. Afghanistan’s Taliban seeks to foster greater cohesion among Taliban groups in both countries. Recent United Nations reports have indicated that more than 20 terrorist groups are operating in Afghanistan, with most of the advanced weapons from NATO transferred to these groups. Recently, testimony in the United States Congress revealed that more than $ 7 billion worth of weapons were left in Afghanistan.

Growing threat

Pakistan consistently prioritises its western borders for security interests and a violence-free situation. Afghanistan’s current government has been accused of providing political asylum to TTP leaders and members, serving as a recruitment hub, and offering training, and fundraising opportunities. Several rocket attacks have been reported along the Iran-Afghanistan border and borders with Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. These incidents have led West Asian and Central Asian countries to reconsider their national security strategies.

Furthermore, a number of internal threats persist under Taliban rule, particularly from remnants of the former government’s security forces, the Islamic State’s local branch (ISK), and the National Resistance Front. These groups may exploit the fragile peace environment in the country. Despite the Taliban’s efforts to curb the activities of these militant groups, they have not yet achieved the desired results. 

Security experts are increasingly concerned about the ongoing violence between Tehrik-e-Taliban and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province, as well as the connections between extremist movements in Central Asia, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan. These developments have a critical impact on the security architecture in the region.

(The writer has a Bachelor’s and Master’s in Security and strategic studies from the General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University and experience in discussing and disseminating international relations in various levels of forums over 10 years.)