Political volatility and creating a narrative

Do people care? As seen by the graph, the recent publicity stunts coupled with the obvious calls to mob violence through the infertility narrative are not really impacting the majority of people. When the news is this biased, people just turn off 

“The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduces them. Whoever can supply them with illusions is easily their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim. An individual in a crowd is a grain of sand amid other grains of sand, which the wind stirs up at will” – Gustav Le Bon

By the Prince of Kandy

The recent Easter Sunday bombings, the subsequent politically backed mob violence1, and the release of a divisive figure, all increase political volatility. This volatility, if carefully managed, can be used to create a change of power. Let it be noted that the divisive figure was jailed for criminal intimidation2.

Sirisena is borrowing tactics from JRJ3 and MR4 to keep himself in power. It was made possible by the control the Executive President has over the media. This controls the narrative following the events. This narrative can then be used to justify blatantly political and selfish actions. 

Context

For the sake of discourse, let me disclose the narrative that I believe in. I believe due to the selective absences of the President, the international disclosures that intelligence was shared, and the subsequent negative impacts on the UNP, that the recent events were pushed by those close to the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. The exclusion of the UNP from Security Council meetings was also considered.

In coming to my conclusion, I do take into account the subsequent movements in terms of SOFA5 and port agreements6. I, however, feel that this is just opportunism. It is also mirrored by the SLFP leadership7 with the visit to China. As much as I don’t blame a lion for hunting, I do not blame a politician for being opportunistic.

Social positioning

Anyone who has ever wielded authority would know that it is very easy to control people by giving them authority over their peers. It is the same reason that teachers appoint prefects, and colonial powers empower small sects of the population. In this vein, we must explore the politically drawn divisions and socio-economic demographics.

Muslims are not rich. There are a few rich Muslims. On average, the divide between the Western Province and the rest of the country is far greater than the disparity between ethnic groups in the same area. The communication of this fact is very poor. Speaking English or doing so exclusively would be a far greater predictor of wealth.

Organised violence requires people to be bussed in from other areas8. This is because people within multi-ethnic communities know that all Muslims are not rich. This failure of communication is not really important in places of ethnic diversity, but rather in places of ethnic homogeneity. Ethnic harmony would prosper without political influence and impunity.

The narrative fed to these rioters can very easily be turned into attacks against, for instance, foreigners within tourist establishments and textile factories. The business community should be very concerned. It has already resulted in damage to the smaller domestic industry, with the attack on the Diamond Pasta factory9. 

We must ask ourselves as to why the majority population can be so easily swayed by giving them a trivial degree of power over another community, the power being impunity in temporary bouts of mob violence. Why was the UNP so popular under JR, and the SLFP under MR? Wouldn’t actual social mobility be of greater interest, or is that too abstract for our politics?

I here would contend that Muslims possessing swords, or even small firearms, does not really pose a great threat to society. Those quite actively pushing a fear psychosis show sociopathic disregard for the wellbeing of the economy. The continuous functioning of businesses is what will help our country, in the long run, build wealth. This was a failure of military intelligence. The real threat, now that the terror cell has been arrested, is politically-backed mob violence against Muslim communities.

Political benefits

Maithripala Sirisena skipped May Day. Those within the SLFP should seriously introspect as to whether actual plans were made for the celebration of May Day. May Day is politically significant, as it is a show of numbers. It was particularly important to see if the SLPP and SLFP were to celebrate the event together.

The celebration of Vesak may have been hindered, but that isn’t very important to the SLFP leadership. The SLFP leadership’s notion of Buddhism and Buddhist credentials were both buffeted by the release of Gnanasara Thero10. Sirisena has made himself quite palatable to the membership of the Podujana Peramuna, and as previously predicted11, failed more refined elements within the SLFP.

Election context

Given the constitutional framework under the 20th Amendment, the most important election (parliamentary) will most likely happen mid-next year. This election will broadly coincide with Trump’s bid for the second term. 

Trump is likely to win, given the failure of Russia-gate, and the relatively weak Democratic pool of challengers. In the words of Chomsky, “The Democrats are helping him. Take the focus on Russia-gate. What’s that all about? I mean, it was pretty obvious at the beginning that you’re not going to find anything very serious about Russian interference in elections.

“The Democrats invested everything in this issue. Well, turned out there was nothing much there. They gave Trump a huge gift. In fact, they may have handed him the next election. … That’s a matter of being so unwilling to deal with fundamental issues that they’re looking for something on the side that will somehow give political success.”

A likely Trump victory will give Sri Lanka, and thereby the ruling UNP, time to delay on its politically divisive UN commitments. Regardless of the outcome of the US election, Trump going into election season will result in more pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates down, and as a result, create space for lower interest rates domestically.

Demographic shifts

A recent study done by the British Council, titled Next Generation Sri Lanka12, is very eye-opening. It shows that a majority of new voters, given a crude assignment of beliefs to political allegiances, will end up voting UNP. Sirisena, for his lack of political popularity, shows unexpected stubbornness and reluctance to collaborate. He will end up with a poor manifesto and weak election material. Even as a statesman, he is unable to elicit sentiment that does not divide a room.

Mangala Samaraweera’s apparent blunder13may hurt his immediate leadership prospects, but position him well for the future. Further, it helps show that the evil that JR brought into the party now firmly manifests itself down Darley Road. The public schools movement and making entrance meritocratic will be very popular amongst the large established middle classes, and those guaranteed a middle-class lifestyle by virtue of birth. 

Bravery

Large vocal sections of the population are calling for strong leadership. This is a stupid political slogan that is meaningless. What exactly do they mean by strong leadership mean? Ranil has stood by the arrest of Hiru Chairmen’s brother Duminda Silva. Hiru14, as anyone familiar with Sri Lanka website traffic knows, is the largest source of news. Ranil commands the confidence of the United National Party. There are countless other examples of his strong leadership.

Ranil called on curfew, mobilised the defence forces, and acted in a proactive manner to minimise damage. He also faced the international media, which isn’t as servile or biased towards a particular narrative. He is also giving leadership to the UNP, which is acting as the last civilising force as the media desperately tries to whip up ethnic tensions.I don’t think Kabir Hashim or any other member of the Muslim community should have to be answerable for the actions of a minuscule radicalised group that defines itself as being Islamic. I do think successive Presidents need to answer for considerable lapses in defence. I would go further and say that elections on five-year cycles are not conducive to keeping a President accountable. 

Footnotes

1http://srilankabrief.org/2019/05/sri-lanka-sirisenas-party-sec-get-mobs-released-two-muslims-dead-namal-kumara-arrested/ 

2https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44479610 

3 https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/black-july-haunting-memories/

4https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/aluthgama-riots-meticulously-planned-and-executed-to-military-precision/ 

5https://datelinecolombo.wordpress.com/2019/05/27/sofa-with-the-us-a-blatant-violation-of-sri-lankas-sovereignty/ 

6https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/sri-lanka-japan-india-sign-deal-to-develop-east-container-terminal-at-colombo-port/article27273794.ece 

7http://www.president.gov.lk/president-returns-after-the-successful-visit-to-china/ 

8http://www.dailymirror.lk/article/A-divided-Digana-falls-Isolated-incident-used-to-fuel-tension-146852.html 

9http://www.ft.lk/front-page/Mobs-destroy-SL-s-largest-pasta-factory/44-678218 

10https://www.newsfirst.lk/2019/05/24/venerable-gnanasara-thero-meets-president/ 

11https://twitter.com/mangalalk/status/1061542606386200576 

12https://www.britishcouncil.org/sites/default/files/next-generation-sri-lanka-march-2019.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1Eh45elKK1b4c5ypUz1i3nP_fW5lG8UnKd8BI2lr8i6-4uXCU6lO2RdNo 

13https://ceylon-ananda.com/i-wont-call-myself-a-buddhist-but-one-who-follows-buddhist-philosophy-mangala/ 

14https://www.alexa.com/topsites/countries/LK