Post-election AKD or no election RW?

President Ranil Wickremesinghe

 AKD Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake

The darker side of the so-called economic recovery and stability has been casually dismissed. Persisting economic and financial hardship of the ones who actually foot the bill for that recovery is conveniently forgotten. The fact that poverty rate increased during the recovery period and that there is still no sign of that rate falling has been ignored. What is more significant is the fact that many of those who sing the praise of RW are the ones who were originally responsible for causing the economic wreckage. They are currently being sheltered under his wings. To them therefore his defeat at the hands of NPP would spell disaster. Hence, the frantic attempts among party stalwarts to close ranks to rally behind the incumbent leader

May Day rallies and massive turnouts for the ones organised by NPP seem to have created panic among older parties that are scrambling for winnable strategies through sustainable coalitions to prevent NPP from capturing power at the next election. In the middle of a raging controversy over whether to hold the General Election first or Presidential Election, the Election Commission has announced that in terms of the Presidential Election Act of 1981, the latter would be held between 17 September and 16 October 2024. 

The incumbent president is yet to announce his candidature, but quietly making strategic moves behind the scene to buy out his possible opponents while cultivating support from different ethnic factions and their minor political parties. His latest move in the strategy to win Muslim support is the allocation of funds to build the Ashraf Memorial Museum in Kalmunai. If everything goes according to his plan, RW could emerge as the common candidate representing all parties and factions to confront the rising nemesis, NPP. But is there another option for him to remain in power? 

At the moment, the most popular chorus heard along the corridors of power, inside state agencies, relayed through the official media, and hummed by the leisure class is that RW is the man for the season. He has been the redeemer who took control of the Presidency that fell into disrepute, accepted the economic challenge to save the treasury from bankruptcy, which is now reported to be sitting with an estimated $ 5 billion, ended the endless consumer queues, brought down a spiralling inflation, and reversed the fate of the depreciating rupee against the mighty dollar. 

That chorus ends with a warning to the nation that the momentum of recovery should not be jeopardised by changing the status quo, which indirectly means a call to endorse RW as the President for another term at least. The CBSL Chief has also joined the chorus band. There are some foreign elements too including IMF that wish the same. The latest gimmick of an Economic Transformation Bill is meant to add one more credential to RW’s electability.

In this chorus however, the darker side of the so-called economic recovery and stability has been casually dismissed. Persisting economic and financial hardship of the ones who actually foot the bill for that recovery is conveniently forgotten. The fact that poverty rate increased during the recovery period and that there is still no sign of that rate falling has been ignored. What is more significant is the fact that many of those who sing the praise of RW are the ones who were originally responsible for causing the economic wreckage. They are currently being sheltered under his wings. To them therefore his defeat at the hands of NPP would spell disaster. Hence, the frantic attempts among party stalwarts to close ranks to rally behind the incumbent leader.

From the point of view of RW however, one advantage of holding the Presidential Poll in September would be to avoid presenting his third budget as Finance Minister and delay it until after his victory. Because, that Budget, which is expected to follow the completion of negotiations over foreign debt restructuring, is bound to include some unsavoury elements especially in relation to repairing the fiscal imbalance and achieving external balance. The burden of servicing that debt even on concessional terms would add more pressure on the Budget. As per IMF advice, further cuts in social spending and increase in taxes would be unavoidable. Like his previous two Budgets this too would be failing to shift the burden of financing the recovery from the wretched majority to the opulent minority. 

Therefore, with PTA and Online Safety Bill at hand to take care of anti-Government protests it would be tactically preferable to win the presidency first before introducing another painful budget. But the popularity of NPP amongst the wretched and the young seems to be unstoppable. If that calculus is right the only way to prevent NPP from capturing the presidency is to deprive its chances to test its strength at the ballot box. That means postponing the election to a later date in 2025. Is that possible or is it an unwarranted and wild speculation?

A period of little over three months until September is too long in politics. Therefore, the option of postponing the election as RW did earlier in the case of Local Councils should not be discounted. He did it then because of financial bankruptcy. But this time it may be for a different reason. Postponement could become a possibility if the country’s security situation or law and order deteriorates. Sri Lankans have not forgotten how Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his brother’s SLPP profited electorally from the Easter Sunday mayhem in 2019. Although the mastermind(s) behind that attack are still at large, there is strong suspicion that security officers were involved. 

What is there to prevent some sinister forces that want the ancient regime to continue from causing another bloody havoc and force declaration of emergency? There are enough anti-Tamil and anti-Muslim racist elements within the established political order, and organisations like Bodu Bala Sena are seething with anger over incarceration of BBS’ Secretary General, Gnanasara Thera. These elements could be called into service by unscrupulous political leaders whose prospects of coming to power are dimming by the day. Already there is opposition from a group of bhikkhus for RW’s appointment of a Muslim as Governor of North Western Province. A few weeks ago, a set of population statistics was released and it revealed that the national birth rate is falling while death rate increasing. 

One should not forget that not long ago and during pre-2020 election days similar demographic statistics were twisted to inject fear among the Sinhalese that Muslims were planning to take over this country by producing more children and that their medical doctors intentionally sterilising Sinhala mothers. A few instances like this would be enough to lit fire to the racist cauldron and create mayhem. Won’t that provide legitimacy to declare emergency and postpone the election? Desperate times call for desperate acts.  

How will NPP react to such an eventuality is the sixty-four-thousand-dollar question. The age of mass protest is not over, but was temporarily disrupted by the Corona virus in 2020. They have resumed in several parts of the world, the latest being New Caledonia. In Sri Lanka, 2022 Aragalaya was not a mass protest but it was from its miasma that a Prime Minister and a President lost their positions in quick succession, and RW was elevated to his current position. In a sense, NPP is also the product of that Aragalaya. 

The demand for system change is now the call from a new generation of voters inspired by that revolt. That new generation could become the vanguard of mass resistance were the election to be postponed. Therefore, such an eventuality should not be discounted. When peaceful changes are made impossible violent changes become inevitable, and when unarmed civilians come out in protest in their thousands military weapons fall silent. For the moment, the choice between a post-election AKD and no election RW is hanging in the balance. History is full of surprises.

(The writer is attached to Business School, Murdoch University, W. Australia.)