Review of the Taliban regime

By Dammika Adhikari

On 29 February 2020, the US signed a historical agreement with the Taliban, aimed at ending the two-decade-long war in Afghanistan. It provided for a phased US military withdrawal, contingent upon the Taliban delivering on certain security guarantees, which included severing ties with the Al-Qaeda. Despite agreeing with the US, the Taliban continued violent attacks across Afghanistan. 

Political leadership in the US intensified the withdrawal of troops after two decades of prolonged conflict. As per the Brown University statics, 175,000 people in Afghanistan including 51,000 terrorists-cum-opposition fighters had lost their lives while over 2,300 US soldiers had been killed. In addition, the war had cost the US nearly $ 2 trillion. The exit of the US troops from Afghanistan and the Ashraf Ghani government forces incapable to provide sound resistance to the Taliban offensive made the gradual collapse of the US-backed government. 

Last year, Afghanistan completed 102 years of Independence gained from British colonial power, and on the same day, Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers declared the formation of an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan which helped to establish the governing system based on Islamic sharia law. Several countries were reluctant to establish diplomatic ties with the newly declared Islamic Emirate but Iran, China, India, and Russia maintain diplomatic relationships with Afghanistan.

However, the strict implementation of sharia law has affected critically the social and cultural sectors. Strictly curtailing women’s education and basic women’s rights hampered all levels of activities in the country. Employment of women in various sectors has been restricted and limited. Gender-based violence increased in the country, in the last year. This was highly criticised by human rights organisations across the world.

Even last month supreme leader Hibatulla Akhudaza ordered judges to fully enforce aspects of Islamic laws that include public executions, stonings and floggings, and amputation of limbs of thieves. The human right situation has been becoming deteriorating day by day in Afghanistan and more people are crossing the borders of Iran and Pakistan. The COVID-19 pandemic and the internal security environment have hampered the economic growth of the country.

Transnational terrorist groups

The peaceful internal environment was curtailed due to the unfavourable peace environment in the country. The Islamic State in Khorasan (ISK), Al-Qaeda, and elements of the Haqqani network stepped up their violent activities inside Afghanistan. They have no compunction in targeting even women and children, funeral processions, schools, and innocent people. In March, this year, the Taliban murdered three female journalists and a few months back killed many Afghan mine-clearers in the north-east Baghlan province. 

Pakistan-based radical terror organisations like Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) make Afghanistan a perfect launching pad for terror activities against regional countries. Even certain reports say that the Taliban provided launching pads for several terrorist groups operating in Central Asian countries such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Islamic Jihad Union (IJU), Jamaat Ansarullah, and Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement which has conducted several attacks in these countries.

Interest of regional powers

Several regional powers are meddling with Afghanistan’s internal matters due to its strategic location and diverse natural resources in the country. Furthermore, Pakistan and the Taliban are having a longstanding relationship. Taliban government does not want to see any negative effects immerging from Pakistan. China was providing long-term financial support, even before the collapse of the United States-backed Afghanistan government. Moreover, China has provided more than $ 1.5 billion in economic support to rebuild the country. China is willing to see the Taliban leadership’s security strategy for countering transnational terrorist networks that would have affected the internal stability of Xinjiang province and the smooth flow of goods and services through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to the Indian Ocean.

India expanded its area of interest up to Afghanistan during the previous government and provided more financial support to rebuild the country, security sector reform, and health sectors. Moreover, India has high concerns about the Chabahar port project which facilitates the Indian strategy initiated in 2015 to enhance the economic ties between Central Asian countries. Most of the Central Asian countries fear the growing presence of transnational terrorist presence in Afghanistan and spillover effects.

Russia had a bad experience with war during 1980-1989 which had a critical impact on the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russians are highly concerned about the stability of Afghanistan and the spillover effects of transnational terrorist networks have a critical impact on the peace and security of Russia. 

Iran shares a more than 572 km long boundary with Afghanistan which has a significant impact on the internal stability of both countries. The number of refugees sheltered on Iranian soil calculates an additional burden to Iran. Moreover, several Al-Qaeda ISIS terrorists have exploited their attacks on various parts of Iran along the Iran and Afghanistan border

What would be the future of Afghanistan? 

More than one year of the ruling period of the Taliban, it has been observed, that there is a deep dividend between the Taliban ruling party and the military-minded Haqqani group which has close links with Pakistan intelligence agencies. Internal sources said more verbal confrontations happened between both parties. The power struggle between both parties has a critical impact on the political stability of Afghanistan.

Internal stability has been affected critically due to the transnational network of terrorist groups operating on Afghanistan’s soil. The Islamic State of Khorasan has created significant impact on peace and stability of the country. The Islamic State of Khorasan has established links with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan provided with expanded expertise and regional geographical knowledge, and curtailed competition for recruits. Apart from that, several internal parties are meddling with stability of Afghanistan such as anti-Taliban groups with the support of former military and political leaders, and a National Resistance Force consisting of several well-trained formed armed forces members, which have a critical impact on peace and stability of the country.

Unable to obtain international recognition is the key failure of the Taliban government. Several Western countries and international donor agencies refused to establish a diplomatic relationship and provide financial support to rebuild due to the government’s inability in implantation of more democratic reforms and bad human track record and a high rate of corruption. The Taliban government needs to have a strategic approach to win the international community in order to sustain in contemporary environment.

(The writer has Bachelors and Masters in security and strategic studies from the General Sir John Kotelawala Defence University and experience in discussing international relations at various levels for over 10 years.)