‘The Role of Sri Lanka in Asia’s Changing Geopolitics’

 Admiral (Prof.) Jayanath Colombage

A joint webinar on ‘Role of Sri Lanka in Asia’s Changing Geopolitics’ was held on 26 June by Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka (INSSL) in partnership with the Nepal Institute of International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE), where the speaker was Admiral (Prof.) Jayanath Colombage, the Director General of INSSSL. 

He began the discussion relating Sri Lanka’s narrative of battling the pandemic, as it can be used as a role model by other countries in Asia. He mentioned that Sri Lanka’s death rate is just 0.55% while the world average is 2%-3% and reiterated that it was due to the swift measures taken by the government to prevent the spread of the pandemic at very early stages even before WHO declared it as a pandemic and due to the government’s policy on giving priority to human life in fighting the pandemic. 

He added that we were talking about a globalised world before but that during COVID time globalisation almost stopped and we witnessed a slowbalisation leading to de-globalisation and that we still cannot predict when we could revert back to the previous world order. 

We were depending on the global supply chain for most of our supplies but the pandemic has made us realise that we can no more depend on it and that self-sufficiency is the answer. He also stated that fortunately Sri Lanka was self-sufficient on rice, tea and coconut and that now we are thinking of improving agriculture and become self-sufficient. 

When taking about the Indian Ocean region the Admiral mentioned that he could describe it in six words, strategic competition (major powers vs. major powers), strategic convergence (some major powers getting together to count another) and strategic dilemma (applicable for smaller countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh which are not major players bearing the brunt of the attack major powers). 

He elaborated the importance of the Indian Ocean’s importance in trade and mentioned that there are many initiatives taken such as the Indo-Pacific, Quadrilateral security dialogue (US, Japan, India and Australia) and Belt and Road Initiative by China, etc. in the Indian Ocean Region. To elaborate on how dangerous the region has become, he sighted that the Indian Ocean is also one of the most militarised oceans in the world with approximately 100-120 warships including nuclear submarines patrolling the Indian Ocean at any given time 

He further went on to say that in this world we have a big asymmetry and developing countries might be forced to choose between major powers and sometimes even to hedge between one power against the other for survival. One way to overcome this strategic dilemma is to have a more rules based international order. The Admiral also stated that there were many threats to Sri Lanka, especially terrorism, cyber-attacks, illegal fishing, ocean pollution, human smuggling, drug/narcotic smuggling weapon smuggling, money laundering and terrorist financing and elaborated that national security should be the priority of any country and stated that as at now all the intelligence units have been brought under one umbrella for better dissemination of vital intelligence in an emergency.

On describing the way forward for Sri Lanka amidst these challenges, the Admiral informed that according to the new government’s foreign policy, there would be four pillars of which the first would be Sri Lanka’s neutrality in foreign relations. Secondly, that Sri Lanka understands that India is very important in strategic security dealings and hence will not be a strategic security concern to India. Thirdly, that Sri Lanka will not be caught up with any power games in the Indian Ocean nor will it be forced to make choices or will hedge on to one side against the other and finally that Sri Lanka will not sell or give control of any of its national strategic assets to any foreign country.

The Admiral stated that the Indo-Pacific strategy is a US military strategy. As a developing nation we may consider working with this strategy on financial and economic aspects. He gave his opinion on the MCC and stated that it was a $ 480 million grant which was almost approved by the previous government after it obtained the cabinet approval but that it would be reviewed by the new government after elections when the report given by the Presidential committee will be taken in for discussion. 

Controversial port Hambantota was started and completed in 2011 much before the Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013. He stated that however the Colombo Port City project (256 hectares of land reclaimed from the sea) is a part of the Belt and Road Initiative but that Sri Lanka would not want to bandwagon only with China but would wish to have multiple investors coming from multiple countries for its development. 

He clarified a popular misinterpretation of identifying Sri Lanka being in a debt trap to China. He mentioned, “We were in debt to bilateral donors, multilateral donors and international donors to the tune of $ 57 billion and our debt to GDP ratio was more than 82%. Debt to China is limited to only $ 9 billion. 

Admiral Colombage went on to say, “India is now paying special attention to its immediate neighbourhood. India is more sensitive to their neighbourhood than ever before except for Pakistan.” He identified India as the ‘Black swan’ in the region. India is moving fast and we have to benefit from that. He appreciated initiatives like SAGAR, where everyone should rise and assure collective security. Moreover, he highlighted the importance of intelligence sharing among regional states. On a question raised on self-sufficiency, the Admiral enlightened that Sri Lanka was highly dependent on imports except for tea, rice and coconuts but that there was a big revolution on agriculture after the pandemic where 400,000 hectares of paddy was cultivated in addition to the farming that was carried out regularly and further stated that Sri Lanka has a good future in agriculture where the economy could be turned into an agriculture-based economy with sustainable agriculture as there is a huge market for organic foods.

The Admiral was determined to clarify: “Trincomalee harbour is ours and that it is not the backyard of India. We have given a portion of the Trincomalee harbour which is called the oil tank farm to the Indian Oil Company in 2002. There are 100 tanks and they are only using 15.” Discussions are going on with regard to the rest of the tanks to be maintained by Sri Lanka. Adding to that, he stated that it was a world class harbour in 1940s up to World War II when it was the Head Quarters of the East Indian fleet and the Admiral insisted that we should develop it soon.

Finally on the border disputes between China and India he pointed out that both are nuclear and also very mature countries and that Sri Lanka would not like to get in to the middle of it and requested that they should solve the issues by exercising restraint without letting it escalate to a full blown war and find a solution through political dialogue. However, if the tension escalates it will be affecting developing countries like Sri Lanka and Nepal in the neighbourhood and hence the issue should be solved amicably.