EU, US and Sri Lanka new phenomena or not?

Donald Trump being sworn in as the 45th President of the US - AFP 

By Mano Ratwatte

On 20 January President Donald Trump warned the world about global free trade in his inaugural speech. He said, “Buy American, hire American and America First.” Trump fired quite a few shots across the bow at the nations he felt were not giving him a fair deal. TPP is dead and NAFTA will be renegotiated while Sri Lanka is in a hurry to ‘ECTAfy’.

President Trump’s era on the government web began almost immediately with the wiping out of Obama-era initiatives and the pronouncement of a new brand of policy. The Department of Labour’s report on lesbians, bisexuals, gays and transgender people in the workplace and the White House’s report on the threats of climate change are no more on the World Wide Web.

In its place there are two brand new policy directions.

I. An America First Energy Plan: “For too long, we’ve been held back by burdensome regulations on our energy industry. President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule. Lifting these restrictions will greatly help American workers, increasing wages by more than $30 billion over the next 7 years.”

II. An America First Foreign Policy: “Peace through strength will be at the center of that foreign policy. This principle will make possible a stable, more peaceful world with less conflict and more common ground.”

With such a radical change of direction, free trade agreements such as NAFTA will be renegotiated. Trump opposed TPP and Sri Lanka should not be in great haste to sign trade agreements with India.  Leading businesses like the Maliban group have already expressed concerns about the tough barriers to fair trade with protectionist India.

Priority shift

Sri Lanka also needs to be prepared to deal with a Trump USA where human rights and LGBTQ rights (the rejected cabinet paper in Sri Lanka was a disappointment to those who wanted the US kind of change because in a primarily Buddhist society, the discriminatory Christian western laws imposed during Victorian times do not seem to fit with Buddhist views of tolerance and acceptance; Ambassador Keshap must be disappointed) and climate change issues will not take priority.  

People like career diplomat Ambassador Keshap, who is almost like the new Dixit in Sri Lanka, will now have to spin the new policy directives with the same patriotic American eagerness shown for Obama’s policies. 

Trump›s USA will refocus on Europe and look to strengthen the US military and the fight against ISIS, and not on climate change or civil rights and definitely not on LGBTQ rights.  

The following two excerpts here signal what he means to do.

• For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry; subsidized the armies of other countries, while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military. We’ve defended other nations’ borders while refusing to defend our own.
• We will reinforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate from the face of the Earth.

People were tired of the political correctness that took over Obama’s regime and wanted to go back to blunt ways to deal with situations. He mentioned Islamic radicalism in his inaugural speech, though it will really not be possible to eradicate it as he vowed to do without partners and without dealing with underlying issues such as the Palestine issue.  He just addressed his base rightwing militaristic audiences with that line.

He will focus on resetting relations with Russia which were badly damaged when Hillary Clinton deliberately undermined Ukraine in 2011 and encouraged violent protests. Hillary sent Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to Kiev to hand over bread to violent protesters. What did you think Putin would do? Roll over? Keep in mind, that however corrupt the Ukrainian President may have been, he was a democratically elected president. 

The US gambled and lost. Russia flexed its newly rejuvenated military muscle (thanks to oil revenues) and took Crimea back (Crimea was given to Ukraine in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev) and decided to make life difficult for the new anti-Russian regime in Kiev (Ukraine was part of the USSR then).

 It is becoming clear that Russia wanted Trump to win and may have helped him win too.  But the way relations were and the massive disasters in Iraq and Syria, a complete reset was needed in order to fight the dangers of ISIS. Will the series of intelligence into intercepted communications between Russia and key Trump advisors reveal deeper involvement?

Trump is also going to use his billionaire real estate developer son-in-law Jared Kushner (talk about Sri Lankan style nepotism), an Orthodox Jew to deal with the Israel-Palestine issue. Ivanka Trump converted to Judaism after marrying him. They are believed to be Orthodox Jews now but he is a very talented man. He may actually be able to deliver the two-state solution if he is sincere.

Lankan overtures

Is Sri Lanka prepared to send a smart and educated trade delegation to promote Sri Lanka to the Trump administration? Trump will all be about trade deals and business and will have a ‘What’s in it for the USA?’ attitude.

Does Sri Lanka know how to quickly approach Nikki Haley, the daughter of Indian Sikh Immigrants (she replaces the bully Samantha Power) who will represent the US at the UN before Tiger lobbyists do? She is a conservative Evangelical Christian now but she is not beholden to Tiger lobbyists and GTF. Can Sri Lanka get its act together and approach her fast to present their case?

Does it know how to approach Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary who is very close to President Trump?  He is the key person for Sri Lanka to cultivate. Democracy, good governance, etc. will not matter to the new US regime. If need be, they will look to improve their strategic security alliances in return for dropping human rights and war crimes charges.  

Do Sri Lanka’s policymakers know what they are up against when Trump talks about free trade hurting American workers? 

When this writer stated that there was a possibility that Trump would win before the election, no one thought it was possible. Even there the writer was wrong a bit because he too trusted the polls too much even though his gut said otherwise when he saw the kind of fanatic enthusiasm at Trump’s rallies. The polls were skewed and did not account for the silent white majority.

I hope Sri Lanka sends a smart, educated delegation to the US to woo the new regime. Trump will be a bad enemy to have if Sri Lanka ruins its chances to generate goodwill. He will not have time for small nations like Sri Lanka when India is the 800 pound gorilla with massive economic clout in the region. What can Sri Lanka offer? An airbase? A naval base? This writer has been against such close ties for a long time, but realpolitik, as the late Chancellor Brandt said, calls for such accommodation or as the cliché goes make lemonade when you are given lemons or get the best out of the hand you are dealt. Trump is all about the art of the deal.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was seen meeting IMF head Christine Largarde. The Managing Director of the IMF was found guilty of misusing public funds in France. The Cour de Justice de la République, a French court that considers cases against current and former government ministers, found Ms. Lagarde guilty of criminal charges related to the misuse of public funds when she was France’s finance minister nearly a decade ago. The IMF stood by her because of the tumultuous times we live in with BREXIT, and also with the US changing direction. This is very interesting considering the EU wants to talk about accountability.

If Marine Le Pen wins the French Election and FREXIT happens, the EU will be in deep trouble. 

A recent BBC report stated: “French National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen has told a meeting of right-wing politicians in Germany that patriotism is the policy of the future. The presidential candidate predicted that voters in France, Germany and the Netherlands would follow their US and UK counterparts to reject the arguments of the political establishment. She said that 2017 would be the ‘year of the awakening’ for European people. Her comments were echoed by the Dutch politician, Geert Wilders. ‘Yesterday, a new America. Today... a new Europe!’ Mr Wilders, the leader of the anti-immigration Freedom Party (PVV), said while opening the meeting under heavy security in the central German city of Koblenz.”

Changing political climate

Policymakers in Sri Lanka should wisen up to the wave of economic nationalism and protectionism that is spreading. Germany is also going through the throes of self-examination because of the spread of terrorism connected to radical Islamic Jihadists despite the fact that they have been the most accepting of refugees.  If Angela Merkel loses there will be even bigger waves on par with pre-World War II upheavals in Europe that led to the rise of fascism and Nazism. Hungary has already moved to the far right.

Chancellor Merkel, who is under pressure, admitted that her refugee policy was wrong. “Germany and other European Union countries turned a blind eye to the refugee crisis building on its external borders for too long,” she said. The social problems are creating a wave of resentment. The massive assault on German women on New Year’s Eve 2015 was an eye-opener. People were shocked that drunk immigrant youth had assaulted and groped and even raped women. Even a German policewoman was groped. 

People do not like their ethnic identities overrun. This is a simple fact of life. They do not want their national identities blended into some politically correct potpourri of accommodation in the name of multiculturism, where all the giving is by the native citizens of those nations and when some political refugees and new economic refugees refuse to adapt and want to force their values on the old order there is a backlash. 

European nations are afraid of Islamic terrorism now. Sri Lankan UNP leaders misread the signals in Britain when they campaigned for the Stay movement. 

They are reacting the way Sri Lanka had to react with tighter security during the hellish war. Places that were so carefree are now filled with tense gun-toting policemen and military. Locals are asking why it came to this.

 Is it political correctness gone too far? When some immigrant thugs threatened bars and pubs in a part of Denmark you sensed something was wrong. They wanted the bars to close and declare the area a Sharia law area? How can that be allowed in an open, liberal western Christian society? The backlash took years to develop because of liberal open policies. When an economy is doing well, people tend to be more open to immigrants; but when the economy sours, people tend to look for scapegoats and welfare recipients. The same phenomenon is occurring in Australia now. In Melbourne, youth gangs from Somalia are wreaking havoc.

The tolerance and acceptance capacities of western democracies have been severely tested partly because neo-colonialists and old colonialists themselves decided to destabilise Arab nations and wage wars based on lies such as the Iraqi invasion causing conditions that gave rise to Islamic radicalism and jihadism that did not exist 30 to 40 years ago. The Western nations, especially the US, cannot just wash their hands off the guilt like Pontius Pilate after creating chaotic conditions.

 It is this amateur’s hope that Sri Lanka makes strategies to project and predict events in Europe and the US (their main export markets) and adapts to changes if it wishes to succeed.

(1References: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/20/us/politics/donald-trump-inauguration.html

2http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38705176)

FT Quote

"I hope Sri Lanka sends a smart, educated delegation to the US to woo the new regime. Trump will be a bad enemy to have if Sri Lanka ruins its chances to generate goodwill. He will not have time for small nations like Sri Lanka when India is the 800 pound gorilla with massive economic clout in the region. What can Sri Lanka offer? An airbase? A naval base? This writer has been against such close ties for a long time, but realpolitik, as the late Chancellor Brandt said, calls for such accommodation or as the cliché goes make lemonade when you are given lemons or get the best out of the hand you are dealt. Trump is all about the art of the deal"