Saturday Sep 21, 2024
Saturday Sep 21, 2024
Saturday, 21 March 2015 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
By Mano Ratwatte
It is time PM Ranil Wickremesinghe, President Maithripala Sirisena and the new FM Mangala Sirisena become well-versed in Indian foreign policy actions. There may soon come a time India like the US in many places (Gulf of Tonkin canard, weapons of mass destruction lie, Saddam was behind 9/11 lie) may engineer incidents of unrest in Sri Lanka to justify a military presence.
India may claim its interests in Trincomalee (after the petroleum hub is developed) are being threatened by separatists or by China and demand a military presence. People who have a view of India as being really rosy and peaceful co-existence fail to realise facts; India’s post WW II history is as troubled as Sri Lanka’s, with the exception that whatever happens in India, including ethnic massacres, do not make international headlines because it is a significant military and economic super power.
The West will never raise issue if India commits excesses in the Muslim state of Kashmir or deal with rebellion in the seven-sister states with an iron hand. So while for the most part, all ethnic and religious groups live side by side in both nations, we should realise that it was not always the case. India is a friend but India will only look after Indian interests. China is a friend but China never interfered in Sri Lanka’s domestic affairs.
The President, PM and FM should first study how Sikkim was absorbed into India. Sikkim was an independent predominantly Buddhist Kingdom until 1975 with a special relationship status with India governing its foreign policy. During the days of Indira Gandhi and Congress I, India fomented “popular unrest” in 1974, (of the kind initiated by the US in Libya and Ukraine in more modern times for different reasons).
By then the population balance in Sikkim had also changed because of the influx of Nepali and Indian Hindus dominate the landscape. This demographic alteration was deliberate. Plains Hindu Indians have radically altered the demographic patterns of Nepal over time as well. Afterwards, there was a referendum (perhaps President JRJ learnt from them about this concept?) and a majority voted to overthrow the unpopular Chyogal/King.
In early 1974, a rigged election was held – an election supervised by four battalions of the notorious Central Police Reserve Force (CPRF) and this election was marked by blatant irregularities perpetuated by the candidates of the pro-Indian Sikkim National Congress; a man named Kazi Lhendup Dorji, a pro Indian, feudal overlord was manoeuvred into power (Do you see the parallels with the election of Vartharaja Perumal under Indian auspices in the 1980s?). Lo and behold India absorbs Sikkim in 1975 because of its fear of China!
Great Wall of India
India is almost done building the world’s longest 4,000km border fence on their border with Bangladesh; it has cost billions of dollars. It is dubbed as the ‘Wall of Death” by locals on both sides of the border. Indian Border Security Forces (its first line of defence: referred to as BSF) has shot and killed/kills hundreds of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants and got/get away with impunity. It has a shoot on sight policy on their long border with Bangladesh.
In recent time xenophobic attacks against Bangladeshis have increased in the NE states as well. BSF routinely harasses Bangladeshis and local Bengalis and detain them on the charges of aiding or sheltering illegal Bangladeshi migrants and smugglers. The biggest concern for India is the millions undocumented(illegal) Bangladeshi migrants in India. A number frequently reported in India media is closer to 20 million. Like Mexican and other Latin American undocumented migrants in the United States, their Bangladeshi counterparts are the favoured scapegoats of the Indian Hindu right — blamed for unemployment, crime, terrorism, “low-key Talibanisation,” and “disturbing our Indian sex-ratio statistics.”
These xenophobic attitudes are widely prevalent. If any Sri Lankan raises concerns about illegal immigration in post-war Sri Lanka, they are howled out, being accused as being anti-Indian; I find that a queer dichotomy of hypocritical well-funded NGO think-tank liberal logic. Poor Sri Lanka is an island. It cannot build a wall to stop illegal immigrants from coming to enjoy the post war economic boom.
Now Indians (and specially that old lady Sushma Swaraj; a Punjabi Brahmin graduate from Punjab University, Chandigarh, who should be well versed with the atrocities Indians committed in Punjab against Sikhs during the Khalistani rebellion), were “outraged” that Sri Lanka’s new PM made an indiscreet albeit a mild statement about a nation having a right to protect its borders.
A bit of trivia, earlier this year, old gal Sushma made an insensitive racial slur about the people of the North Eastern States of India; this is so typical of the arrogant North India Hindi speakers. Swaraj speaking in Lok Sabha about the death of youth from Arunachal Pradesh, who was beaten to death in Delhi in a suspected racial attack, said “people with flat noses are as much Indians as those with sharp ones” (chapti naakwale). If a politician in the US or Sri Lanka said something like that he would have to resign. This is the Gandhian spirit of the Hindu dominated BJP.
Why is okay for India to actually shot on sight hapless poor illegal immigrants then? Why is the West silent? Because it is India: A powerful nation with the fourth largest military in the world and a strategic partner of the USA in the war against Islamist terrorism. India has dramatically increased its foreign weapons imports by importing 140% more weapons between 2010 and 2014 than between 2005 and 2009. It’s the fourth biggest importer of weapons. It has a huge domestic weapons manufacturing and assembly industry. Its traditional enemy is Pakistan but it fears China.
China phobia
India continues to be doubly afraid of China after its disastrous rout at the hands of communist China in the border war in 1962. It has border issues with China in Arunachal Pradesh and other NE seven-sister states as well.
It has long smouldering insurgencies to deal with in those areas and foreign travellers are prohibited from visiting those states without special permission. India has a very large military presence in those states. It also has a massive military presence in Kashmir and is not keen on arriving at any political settlement to that issue despite Modi’s ostensible holy pontifications.
Modi fever
Make no mistake, PM Modi is pro-business and very much an ardent proponent of more independence at State Government level in India. But that is India; a huge nation where there are so many diverse ethno-linguistic groups across so many states. But the writ of the Central Government is very obvious in the NE states where Christians are the majority. Modi is still a Hindu Raj proponent.
Look at recent laws passed in Gujarat, Maharasthra and now Haryana banning cattle slaughter. Ironically, slaughtering a cow can get you 10 years RI whilst raping and molesting a woman gets you only three years. These are anti-Muslim (India has 177 million Muslims; that is 10.1% of the world’s Muslim population) political measures brought about by democratic vote. RSS and Hindu conservatives dominate Modi’s party; BBS thugs are boy scouts compared to the RSS and some violent Hindu radicals.
Modi could not even get a tourist visa to come to the US after his party and he were implicated in the violent pogrom against Muslims in 2002. It is very important to keep that in mind; his mindset is of a Hinduvta or Hindu Raj for India where other minorities shall just follow. It is not a coincidence that after his victory, attacks on churches had increased. It even prompted President Obama to comment on religious freedoms in India. Be wary of Modi-fever. He may talk a good talk but does he walk the walk with his actions?
Options
Not too many. What should Sri Lanka do? It should always look after its own interests and not appease Indian expansionism too much but never antagonise it either nor allow forces hostile to India to take root in Sri Lanka; JRJ learnt a bitter lesson; it should also emphasise on a joint commission to discuss and tackle bi-lateral issues. Sri Lanka should also insist upon the adherence to non-aligned policies and non-interference in the internal affairs of another independent nation.
Sri Lanka’s foreign policy actions towards India and China should always be transparent, considering its geographic (unfortunate) proximity to India. Foolish UP thought Sri Lanka had an ASEAN identity. It should guard against signing a free trade agreement which will only lead to the further deterioration of local industry (or what is left of it after dumping of cheap good from India).
Smart people
I strongly feel that Sri Lanka Foreign and Defence Ministries should have designated personnel devoted to studying Indian military and foreign policy actions and monitoring them. Putting sub-educated ill-informed political hacks in key diplomatic positions to provide an education for their children or as a reward have been a huge detriment to Sri Lanka’s national interests.
I am not sure how the SL Foreign Ministry works, but the US State Department has a huge budget and it has people specialising in differing regions of the world and they run game plans and strategic projection and simulations to cover almost any possible scenario in every corner of the world. In the case of the US, a lot of top policy wonks are also Jewish Americans. US relations with the democratic nation of Israel are devoid of partisan political interests as a result.
India has smart educated Foreign Service professionals who are apolitical. They do the same in coming up with long-term strategic plans and goals to foster Indian interests abroad; it is sad that India has so many smart educated officials in their FM and Sri Lanka doesn’t; Sri Lanka has been deploying political hacks to discuss policy in key stations! No wonder the US and India outwitted the Rajapaksa regime.
The US did not encourage regime change because of concerns about democracy; it did so because of long-term fears about Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean so close to strategic maritime routes. Republicans were lobbied by the UNP on anti-Chinese issues.
Change
The visa on arrival reciprocity is welcome but in a world of global trade and free flow of goods and services, India is yet to reciprocate in providing employment opportunities in India for Sri Lankan citizens; why? Sri Lanka now has a burgeoning expatriate Indian population enjoying superior living conditions and salaries. They are living it up but are they being monitored closely for RAW infiltration and overstaying of their work visas? What is there to stop India from engineering incidents to intervene? Modi’s statements about “13A and beyond” could be a warning of further interference.
Two years ago I wrote about Indo-US attempts to destabilise Sri Lanka and Maldives and no one listened. Look at what happened in the Maldives. It is no coincidence that the US didn’t have a Maldivian interests section in their Embassy until 2008. It is quite clear that Rajapaksa regime and their clueless village cleverniks overplayed the China card. Corruption and autocratic dictatorial tendencies contributed to his defeat but you cannot rule out the degree of foreign interference in its elections.
One could look at the election result as a victory for democratic freedoms, and defeat of nepotism, familial dictatorship, and corruption but above all a blessing to prevent the US-Indo axis of fomenting civil unrest. Perhaps the astrological forecasts for Sri Lankan voters turned out good after all? Only solution to preventing Indians from interfering is to come up with an acceptable action plan to accommodate legitimate grievances of the Tamil minority. Will it be that bad to grant a degree of land and police powers?
India has a CRPF and BSF it can deploy anytime under Central Government command; it also has military bases across its strategic border regions in crucial border states and conflict states. These bases cannot be removed by State Government diktats. Why not try a solution like that? It is time to stop dilly dallying and speak to each other. Wouldn’t Tamil people feel safer if their areas are patrolled by more Tamil-speaking policemen?
Recall the manner in which the US encouraged civil unrest in Kiev; the Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was so arrogant and bold to go support violent anti-Russian protestors at the barricades; even providing at the protest lines. If the election results didn’t pan out the way they intended it to be, foreign instigated domestic unrest would have been the next step (think Egypt, Libya, Iran). And please remember that Turkey, a NATO partner, violated international laws and invade Cyprus on engineered pretences. The world did not bother.
It too will not bother if India invades Sri Lanka; hence it is important to re-set its foreign policy objectives whilst guarding against foreign interference and resolving the Tamil political crisis so there is never going to be war and grieving Tamil or Sinhala mothers again. Sri Lanka should always look after Sri Lanka’s interests. Forget astrology, self-preservation of a 2,000-year-old identity of never being an Indian colony is in danger. Think Sikkim.
