Political intercourse!

The people, the hitherto hapless majority of honourable citizens, muzzled for too long remain calm, cognisant of the new reality – a vote with a choice

By T. E., Kotte

The election tsunami is on the horizon. The politicians are fretful, anxiety is palpable, lest they be powerless and indefensible by foul means and deprived of spoils. The rabble is raucous. Restless perhaps that they may lose the table scraps at the foot of the pseudo benefactors table.

The people, the hitherto hapless majority of honourable citizens, muzzled for too long remain calm, cognisant of the new reality. A vote with a choice.

The mild chop on the surface of the political sea deceptively hides the huge surge of populous energy which was set free by the shift in the tectonic plates of the Blue and Green continents with satellites contributing their diverse aftershocks to drive the oncoming wave of kinetic energy, ignited by the January collision.

The sublime energy pulse is felt by those politicians whose sensibilities are progressively distancing them from the fast approaching tsunami target zone. The now unprotected underbelly of a foul political proletariat with its back to a wall of jelly, rooted through fear in its own corrupt and violent political philosophy. No buffer zones of mangroves and sand dunes for protection anymore. An unprotected mass palpitating at the prospect of being swept out to sea by the very forces so long subservient. The people.

The “rule by whim” modus operandi of the prevalent political powers is patently in its death throes. They sense themselves being engulfed by the human tide tired of playing tread mats. The once high and mighty now traverse a slippery slope.

The verdant predominant political parties have thru self-indulgent policies finally collided in the same orbit. End result? Self-destruction.

Everyone for themselves

Bewildered by prevailing cross currents, largely rudderless, it is now everyone for themselves. Quite evident from the “any port in a storm” manoeuvres currently in progress. The safe haven, knee jerk political marriages to weather the coming storm abound. Too little, too late by all parties without exception.

With the exception of the remoras following the sharks in anticipation of a continued livelihood, the population is distinctly in flux. The majority now free from the shackles of fear and oppression, is progressively conscious of its right and obligation to assert its sovereignty. 

The realisation that the choice of suitable candidates, irrespective of prior party affiliations, more often than not purely by habit, is fast gaining ground. Only the smaller parties, hitherto insignificant, are more apace with the public sentiment thru necessity. The two main contenders were in denial up to the date of nominations.

The polarisation is virtually complete.

National government now a dead letter?

Is the once-envisioned national government now a dead letter? Still debated only; who drove the final coffin nail?! For better or for worse, the deed is done. Perhaps for the better.

The Greens have halted their charge and herded with other species in damage control mode. On the one hand they have been beneficiaries of the self-preservation instincts of the reinstated Rainbow coalition and the exodus of true Blues, prompted less by their affinity to the Greens than their revulsion for their prior abode. The exodus may be far from over. 

The propensity to move to the new Rainbow coalition can possibly accelerate progressively in short order, catalysed by building public resistance and revulsion for the renewed arrogance of the erstwhile opposition, compounded by reincarnating perceived miscreants via nominations with absolute disdain. They have forcefully morphed a swan into a reluctant elephant!

Is the polity cloud as inscrutable as it appears? Perhaps somewhat so till 14 July. Somewhat less as of now. Hopefully clearer now to readers following this writer’s musings over the last few months. Shame on those politicians who hit the life rafts, abandoning the president. Raises the question; can such poor political judgment run a country? 

So what further prognosis? The dawning political landscape is predictably in metamorphosis. Does the political caterpillar finally, after a 40-year cocooned hiatus, emerge a butterfly? More likely than not.

What emerges may not remotely resemble the prevailing power blocs. 

What’s on the cards?

What’s on the cards? Do not be surprised if the JHU and the JVP win more seats than ever before. The TNA is a given. Other small parties are inconsequential. Do not expect the Greens to win as many seats as they believe. A premature rainbow?! Expect a progressive exodus from the UPFA to the true Blues.

Expect the UPFA to be left only with those not acceptable to the MS Blues. Should the UPFA to SLFP migration materialise, the MS Blues will win a greater number of seats than the RW Greens. The UPFA remnants will do a Titanic. The main coxswains on the Titanic will go down with the ship.

We will probably see a grand coalition or national government for the next five years.

Only outstanding questions are: Who will lead the SLFP election campaign? Could it be CBK? Who becomes the prime minister if anybody other than RW, within a national government, achieves a higher preferential vote?