Sri Lankan surprise: Maithripala Sirisena’s win revitalises the island’s democracy

Tuesday, 13 January 2015 00:17 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Wall Street Journal: In a startling electoral upset, Sri Lankan voters Thursday ousted President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was seeking an unprecedented third term, in favour of Opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena. The message was clear: Creeping authoritarianism will not be tolerated in one of Asia’s oldest democracies. Rajapaksa called the snap election in November—two years ahead of schedule—expecting it would consolidate his power. Yet within a day of the announcement then-Minister of Health Maithripala Sirisena resigned from the Cabinet and declared his candidacy. He quickly secured the support of top Opposition parties.

Rajapaksa was still widely considered to be the favourite. He played a decisive role in ending the country’s decades-long fight against the Tamil insurgency, achieving a peace that refreshed war-weary Sri Lankans. He also ushered the economy into an era of annual growth exceeding 7%. Combined with what some observers deemed a “personality cult” and a penchant for strongman political tactics, the support of the Sinhalese Buddhist majority seemed secure. Sirisena countered that under Rajapaksa the Sri Lankan Presidency was “moving towards a dictatorship,” an allegation echoed by other critics of the government. He amended the constitution to do away with presidential term limits and impeached a Chief Justice after an unfavourable ruling. The fact that many of Rajapaksa’s relatives obtained plum government positions only added to the discontent. Big potential changes Rajapaksa’s sudden exit means big potential changes for the island nation. President Sirisena, who was sworn in on Friday, has vowed to eliminate the presidency within his first 100 days in office, in favour of a Parliamentary system led by a prime minister. He also promised to open war crimes investigations into the country’s civil war. Such a move might placate those at home and abroad who were horrified by the disturbingly high number of civilian casualties during the conflict’s final months. However, he also said Rajapaksa and his family would be shielded from such an investigation, a pledge likely to soften any finding’s impact. Sirisena’s win could also change the strategic outlook in South Asia. Under Rajapaksa, Sri Lanka had grown increasingly close with China, receiving arms and soft loans for infrastructure projects. Most significant was a $1.5 billion deal with the China Communications Construction Co. Ltd. to develop a new port in Colombo—a crucial part of Chinese President Xi Jinping ’s “21st Century Maritime Silk Road.” Sirisena says he will reject the deal. The big winner from that shift should be India. Relations between Sri Lanka and the subcontinent soured when India refused to provide arms during the last years of the island’s civil war. The recent appearance of Chinese submarines in Sri Lankan ports have added to the tension between India and Sri Lanka, which have had close ties for centuries. Yet India cannot expect a return to total diplomatic primacy. Sirisena says Colombo will treat China, India, Japan and Pakistan as equals. Uncertainty remains Even as the shadow of the Rajapaksa Government recedes, uncertainty remains. Standard & Poor’s pointed out that having a centralised presidency “allowed moderate progress in economic reforms and fiscal consolidation.” A parliamentary system may bring a less energetic executive. Then there’s the question of stability. Sirisena was elected by a diverse coalition of Sinhalese Buddhists, Tamil Muslims and Hindus. Yet it is more likely that these groups came together out of their distaste for Rajapaksa then over shared political values. It is vital that Sirisena find a way to balance the needs of a populace scarred by war. The northern Tamil-dominated region is still occupied by the military, making it imperative to create opportunities for the minority. The greatest tragedy would be for Sri Lanka to revitalise its democracy, only to fall back into civil conflict.