The power balance

By Cheranka Mendis

There is, according to all observers of international affairs, a shift of the centre of gravity of global economic and political power to the Asia Pacific and very clearly to the Global South.

The happenings over the next decade or two will be decisive, where the world will witness the re-emergence of Asia, which, by the year 2030, is expected to account for 50% of the global output, said Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs and Former Under Secretary General of the UN Jayantha Dhanapala.

Dhanapala was addressing the three-day Eisenhower Foundation South Asia Conference 2012 held in Sri Lanka last week. Moderating the first session of the conference, he noted that South Asia with its enormous population and resources constituted a significant part of Asia, even though much depended on how one would react to the developments.

“Is it going to be a tide that lifts several boats including the small boat of Sri Lanka or is it going to be something dependent on the stance by others to seek power, resulting in a contest for it?” Dhanapala questioned.

“Are we likely to see the containment of China in which we in Asia will witness a cold war between some against the West and China, in which small countries like Sri Lanka will be sucked into the vortex of cold war, with all the instability it entails? Or will there be a war accommodating sections of power and sharing of power in a way where decent purpose which is upheld as being a principal of international relations will be followed?”

However, this would also pose a challenge for South Asia to set new paradigms for international relations. Dhanapala commented that ensuring that it had a predominant youthful population was one of the ways in which the region could transform international relations.

“We do have two nuclear armed countries in South Asia which we must always be conscious of when we look at the international situation and the relation amongst ourselves. We must also be conscious of the rising military expenditure despite the enormous constraints on the global economy and our governments with regard to competing demands of social health and other educational expenditures.”

Advice from Eisenhower

 Quoting Eisenhower, Dhanapala said: “We must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence whether sought or unsought by the military industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exist and well persist.”

The warning still remains relevant as there are still military industrial complexes not only in USA but in many other countries contributing to the rising military expenditure of the world which in 2011 estimated for US$ 1,730 billion per annum according to statistics of the Stockholm International Peace Research Unit.

There are other aspects of military industrial complex that are also relevant today, Dhanapala said. “The former President also said that we and our government must fight the impulse to fight only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow.”

He also noted that government with mutual confidence is a continuing imperative to the cause. “Together we must learn how to compose differences not with arms but with intellect and decent purpose. And this is a message that is relevant today when we have so many international and regional conflicts going on in addition to domestic conflicts,” Dhanapala said.

 Sri Lanka and South Asia: US perspective

 US Ambassador in Sri Lanka Michele Sison speaking on the work US conducts in regional integration noted that the US foreign policy upholds bilateral relationships with a country with a vision of supporting not just the governments but people, NGOs and supporting their vision of regional linkages.

The support is rendered through a partnership basis not imposing the US vision on how regional linkages should operate. “There is great promise and opportunity for greater regional integration,” Sison said. “We are looking to cement and support at the request of the citizens of the region a wide variety of economic and political linkages.”

Speaking on trade integration, she assured that stronger trade routes and commercial linkages is critical to develop the region.

“Through a number of USAID and other US Government support mechanisms we continue to work on supporting the economic factors in the intra regional trade area and building markets among various factors of the region. We will continue with the programs that you see in place in South Asia through USAID in intra regional trade, intraregional transportation, infrastructure development and energy linkages which enhances job creation, spur economic growth and locally improve and enhance the quality of life.”

Trade, energy and US

The programs now in operation in the country focus on building trade and investment opportunities while exploring opportunities to support the region on boarder controls of security rewards so that illicit goods trade is curbed. “This will help not only the economy but helps to control terrorism; which continues to be a key priority not only in supporting the economic factors but improving boarder controls.”

On the energy side USAID’s South Asia regional initiative for energy plays a pivotal role in development, Sison said. “This promotes cross border trade into markets including access to clean energy throughout Asia.”

In Sri Lanka the project partners with the Sri Lankan Sustainable Energy Authority to establish a regional centre for energy efficient lighting. “This centre engages with the Sri Lankan public and private sector on energy efficient lighting. There are similar offices in each of the SAARC countries as well.”

She assured that US would continue to look at the actions of each of the South Asian countries for their agendas in promoting regional linkages such as natural resource management, Entrepreneurship and business development. “At the request of Sri Lankan Government we have continued to develop common private alliance,” she said.

“We provide training on what we call vulnerable population trying to address their needs with assistance through a public private alliance where USAID is part of very successful locally founded companies and provide employment in former conflict zones. This is mirrored elsewhere in the region as well.”

The US is also keen to build a regional approach in disaster response. She stated that the Department of State is funding to provide technical assistance to SAARC member states to develop a regional incident command system – a multi hazard response management system which is similar to the type of system used in US for emergency responders on all levels of US Government in time of natural disasters.” Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka are all said to be part of the regional disaster response mechanism.  

Women and youth empowerment and US

 Calling it a people-to-people aspect, Sison noted that success would depend on education as well as democratic institutions in civil society. “So we look at a number of outreach programs built on linkages amongst the groups in South Asian countries. Many people are doing wonderful things but they need to share best practices and experiences among the youth, entrepreneurial groups, civil society groups and literacy groups.”

As the South Asian NGOs and community based organisations work to strengthen the rural groups literacy, struggle for free media, empower the women as agents of change the US want to ensure that they provide the necessary leadership to make them stronger.

“In terms of youth we know that access to quality education including vocational education is critical more today than ever before. We continue to offer traditional student counselling and have set up the number of English language teaching programs across the region. We have programs in the most rural corners of the nations in the region realising that many of the kids will not have access to quality English language enrichment education. Here in Sri Lanka we focus across the country but with special attention on IDPs.”

They also conduct a Room to Read program which enables a large number of girls in secondary schools around Asia to complete education not just academically but on life skills as well for three years to girls to graduate from high schools. The US is also supporting regional initiatives for women in micro finance, practical job skills training, business association.

“We recently made an announcement of two programs in Sri Lanka mirroring programs in other countries,” she said. The programs are on women entrepreneurship particularly in females heading households, war widows to provide finance and business development services and on addressing gender based violence. In December US will sponsor Regional South Asian Women Entrepreneurial Symposium to work on action plans for the region.

“The dialogue will be on ensuring economic success, creating gender friendly environment and advocating political reform that will help the entrepreneurs. There will also discuss countering trafficking of persons which is a priority of our campaigns.”

Who are we?

 Centre for Policy Alternatives Executive Director Dr. Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu raised the question of how we are when talking about South Asia.

“We talk about international and regional balance of power. We are talking about a sense of security within certain political and security frameworks, motions of identity, etc. there is a question of how do we identify and define ourselves in the 21st century; which is extremely important as it identifies with long questions of superiority and at the heart of which is the question of identity.”

Is South Asia clearly a geographical concern and what is the boundary if it is to be defined clearly in those terms? Does China come into the equation?

“You cannot talk about South Asia without escaping the pivotal role of South Asia whether it is on civilisation terms, cultural terms, political terms and geographical terms. From this the question arises whether South Asians define themselves in a way that accommodates all that defines South Asia or if the definition is ourselves against or in relation to India.

“Coming out of an ethnic conflict, ‘what it is to be a Sri Lankan’ is a continuing proposition and I suspect that that conversation is being carried out in all of the member countries in SAARC in varied degrees of intensities and passion which has a direct bearing on their notions of sovereignty and relationships with each other.”

Saravanamuttu questioned: “It is to be defined by the membership of SAARC, an organisation which according to some is dead as a dodo or according to others way ahead of their time? Or is it going to be the case having considered the technological changes, economical challenges and dynamism unleashed to look at South Asia rather differently, that there isn’t really a South Asia at a regional level that does not have a Chinese dimension?”

What is the South Asian model of feudalism? “A formal but flawed democratic process – a deep abiding fate in democratic institutions and processors irrespective whether the current realities reflect that or not.” This is of importance to Sri Lanka more so than other countries because it flirts with the idea of the East Asian model as opposed to South Asian model as far as political and Government is concerned, he said.

Divide within the country

 In post-war Sri Lanka, international balance of power is important due to the allegations of human rights violations and war crimes. “It is in the way that you fight rather than the legitimacy of fighting the war. No one in the international community told us that LTTE should not be defeated. Most supported us,” he reminded.

He noted that an ethic divide lies within Sri Lanka in its perception of the world at large. This in turn rears a kind of Global North and Global South notion in international politics and what is important.

“If an average Sri Lankan is asked who our best friend is, they would without hesitation say China. Beyond Vavuniya, the Tamil community would I suspect say US and the Western powers and of course India, which is very much a love-hate relationship.”

However, there is also a kind of contradiction in terms of who we consider our friends and what we expect of them. “Those who say China is our best friend, do not, I think, aspire to send their children to Chinese universities. All Sri Lankan middle class parents dream of sending their children to the West.”

Beyond this, the Government is dependent on the public support of the Chinese because they fund Sri Lanka, mostly as loans. “India gives us grants but we make a hullabaloo of Chinese loans and nothing much of India.”

China, however, protects the regime at multilateral forums. Saravanamuttu commented that in his opinion, China will be here even if there were a government change in the country.

“What has happened to us is that we have allowed ourselves to become a sect for competition between India and China in the region. South of Vavuniya China has funded the economic projects, North of Vavuniya Indians have funded. We have spheres of influences that are illustrative of the competition in the region.”