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Monday Nov 25, 2024
Thursday, 14 August 2014 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
By S. Farook
The battle between sustainability and economic growth is an ugly one. On the sustainability side there are real issues like climate change and preserving and replenishing earth’s limited resources, sustaining the delicate balance of nature and of other living beings. On the economic side, there is unemployment, poverty, hunger and an ever more power hungry lifestyle.
For governments and the masses, unemployment, hunger and economic growth are real, everyday issues. They are only trying to survive. But, disrupting nature’s delicate balance could possibly be the annihilation of the entire human race. Policy makers weigh towards the more tangible economic growth, employment and hunger issues because that is immediately visible and is in front of them as opposed to a scenario of global doom based on current consumption patterns.
Energy is one of the biggest issues stuck in the middle of this tussle. Conservationists admit that each country has a need to grow their economies, but are recommending cleaner and more sustainable ways of going about it. On the other side of this argument is the need to meet the ever growing demand for electricity from households and industries with low cost, large scale power generation capacity.
The cheap solution
Let us admit it. Coal is one of the most pollutant fossil fuels for energy generation. But is also the cheapest and most viable for large scale power generation. Why is this statement relevant? Because Sri Lanka’s most recent generation capacity comes from this fuel source. Now to the rest of the fuels: diesel, gas and other liquid alternatives cause relatively less pollution, but are more expensive when a country relies on imported oil. Adding further to the woes of a country that is dependent on imported oil is an impending fuel shortage created by a fault in both the refined and crud offloading – off-shore pine lines and a barrage of controversies that has plagued the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation for some time now.
Clean alternatives
Conservation is however the key word globally when the conversation about power and energy gets underway. Sources such hydroelectric, wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and other sources will provide the impetus for energy generation into the future. We are already seeing countries like Germany and Japan enacting legislation to increase generation capacity from renewable sources and have halted plans for new thermal generation capacity. The prospect of facing an energy crisis at the end of this century is also a very real threat for life as we know it and the growth of industry and commerce to sustain the every expanding needs of mankind. Most importantly, most of these sources are free, meaning there is no input cost like fuel and offer free or very low cost electricity over the long term.
However, start-up costs remain high. In addition hydro, wind and solar energy, which offer the greatest potential to produce the vast energy needs, are inherently intermittent and engineers haven’t yet developed cost-efficient technologies to store electricity generated by renewable. Even if the government of the world’s leading economies pump in massive amounts of funding to accelerate research and development of viable renewable energy sources, storage and dissemination, it will take at least 20 years before they can even begin to replace fossil fuel based electricity at the current demand growth rate.
Alternate solutions
In the interim, energy forums promote the development of more efficient mechanism to use foil fuels, like the hybrid technology used in cars. The other solution is to curb the growing demand for energy itself. Flat lining energy growth over the next 20 years will free up enough resources to put behind developing substantial renewable energy resources. While it sounds good in theory, the practicality is a little tricky. Flat lining energy growth would mean, zeroing out the demand for energy from households and industries. Translation: stopping economic and population growth. A more practical approach is to adopt new methodologies that can actually reduce energy use in both the household and industrial situations, thereby freeing up capacity in the grid for growth.
Interestingly, high energy bills in countries like Sri Lanka have already pushed industries and households to cut energy usage. Replacing lighting with CFLs, designing buildings with more natural light, using energy efficient appliances and cooling solutions, etc… are already in practice. Further reductions will have to come from lifestyle changes and new, less energy intensive production methods.
Long term strategy
While the world eagerly awaits the mass deployment of renewable energy, governments will have to invest in currently viable technologies for power generation to meet the increasing demand for electricity from both residential and industrial users. For the time being it is coal. In the Sri Lankan scenario, despite the impending fuel shortage, Sri Lanka is continuing to enjoy uninterrupted power, at least in most parts of the island, primarily due to the commissioning of the coal power plant. Sri Lanka will however, need to step up its efforts to research, plan and implement cleaner energy solutions in stages over the next few decades to reach any useful level and to replace fossil fuel based energy.
The Government has already announced that it envisages to provide electricity to all households by 2015. Meanwhile, the demand for electricity is estimated to rise at an annual pace of 8% - 10%.
According to the Sustainable Energy Authority, growing electricity demand could be met only by adding adequate generation capacities, employing the most appropriate technologies in the most economical manner. It further states that the present energy resources in Sri Lanka fail to meet these criteria and therefore, the need for several resources or an energy mix arises. The Ministry of Power and Energy has formulated the National Energy Policies and Strategies of Sri Lanka (2008) which envisages the gradual increase of non-conventional renewable energy resources to provide the right mix to generate electricity, as summarised in Table 01.
The Authority also states that the Government has also recognised the need to elevate biomass as both a commercial crop as well as the third fuel option for electricity generation and has accordingly declared Gliricedia sepium as the fourth plantation crop after tea, rubber and coconut in 2005. Biofuels as an important constituent of the transport energy will be developed to take a 20 % share by 2020.
In the short-term
In the interim, with Sri Lanka’s hydro resources mostly tapped out, the government will turn to coal in the short term. By the end of 2014, Sri Lanka will have 900 MW of coal fired power in its generation mix and a far reduced state of oil and gas fired capacity. Another 1100 MW will be added over the next ten years to keep up with the demand. The Ceylon Electricity Board will add about 60 MW of Hydro capacity over the next two to three years under two small hydro power projects, and likely the last of Sri Lanka’s hydroelectric capacity.
Into the mid term, wind power offers the most potential, but start up costs will be the deciding factor, unless the government steps in with some relief to make it commercially viable for the private sector to enter the wind power generation sector in Sri Lanka. Already Sri Lanka has close to 100MW of wind power, far more than any other renewable source that has proved viable in Sri Lanka.
