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Monday, 19 January 2015 00:01 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
“One of the SNB’s responsibilities is to ensure orderly markets, and it didn’t. Within seconds you damage something that had been effectively built up since 1982,” said Simon Derrick, head of currency strategy at Bank of New York Mellon in London.
Investors from all over the world have for decades been attracted to Switzerland’s commitment to low inflation, economic and financial stability, political neutrality and some of the most secretive and secure banking laws in the world.
Simply put, holding Swiss francs has been one of the safest ways of protecting one’s wealth in times of economic or political turbulence.
The SNB decision prompted the franc to soar by almost 30% at one point on Thursday, a magnitude of appreciation almost unheard of in a major developed market currency in modern times.
This has shattered the SNB’s bullet-proof credibility, which could take some time to be rebuilt.
“But Switzerland is still a natural magnet for money, and still acts as a place where people want to put their money if they feel uncomfortable about what’s happening in the euro zone, Russia or elsewhere,” said Derrick.
There were signs on Thursday and Friday that foreign workers in Switzerland and domestic investors were looking to cut their exposure to the franc.
In Geneva, long queues formed outside foreign exchange bureau as foreign workers and others sought to cash in on their newly revalued francs, while high-end real estate firms in London noted a surge in interest from Swiss clients.
“A flow of ‘safe-haven’-seeking investors from Switzerland have already begun to focus on central London, which has in the blink of an eye become substantially cheaper for them,” said Naomi Heaton, CEO of residential fund and asset managers London Central Portfolio.
The franc’s safe-haven status has been brought into sharp focus in recent months, particularly in light of the economic, financial and political uncertainty surrounding Russia sparked by Western sanctions on Moscow and the collapsing oil price.
The influx of huge amounts of Russian money into Switzerland last year was a “major contributory factor” behind the SNB introducing negative interest rates on certain deposits last month, SNB chairman Thomas Jordan said.
The central bank’s market intervention to keep the franc capped at 1.20 euros since 2011 had bloated its foreign exchange reserves to almost $500 billion. The franc’s surge on Thursday wiped up to $100 billion off the value of those reserves.
Another headache for Zurich was the euro zone’s slide into deflation. The European Central Bank’s expected large-scale bond-buying program to combat this pushed the euro to multi-year lows against the dollar and created huge pressure on the franc’s 1.20 cap against the single currency.
The euro plunged to a record low of 0.85 francs after the SNB stepped back from defending 1.20, before recovering to around parity on Friday.
Jim O’Neill, formerly of Goldman Sachs and who coined the “BRIC” acronym covering the emerging powers of Brazil, Russia, India and China, said the franc is now unsustainably strong, overvalued against the euro by some 40%.
“But for some retail investors this will greatly enhance the franc’s role as the world’s best safe haven, as even the central bank couldn’t stop its rise against a background of huge fear and uncertainty,” he said.
