Overcapacity problem to grow in 2012

Paris-based liner shipping consultancy Alphaliner is forecasting that net growth of the cellular containership fleet will reach 1.28M TEU (+8.3%) in 2012 after provision for scrappage (estimated at 120,000 TEU) and delivery slippage (estimated at 80,000 TEU).

Some 253 cellular ships, representing 1.47M TEU are planned for delivery this year, which could end up at around 228 units for 1.39 M TEU after allowance for slippage, Alphaliner said.

By comparison, the cellular fleet grew by 7.9% in 2011, with deliveries of 127 vessels with a total capacity of 1.23M TEU.

Despite the looming overcapacity, 239 cellular ships totalling 1.77M TEU were ordered in 2011, with an aggregated value of US$19.5B. The orderbook reached 620 ships (4.3M TEU) on 31 December 2011, representing 28% of the existing cellular fleet (15.4M TEU).

A total of 90 cellular ships with a combined capacity of 105,500 TEU left the fleet in 2011, of which 70 units (85,100 TEU) were scrapped. Of the 20 other ships, 17 units (16,000 TEU) were “de-celled” and converted into bulk/ breakbulk vessels and three units (4,400 TEU) were lost.

Alphaliner said the 8.2% fleet growth expected for 2012 presents a serious challenge for the industry as demand growth is expected to weaken to 6.5%, against an estimated 7.7% growth in 2011.

Of the expected deliveries this year, 49% are concentrated in ships of above 10,000TEU. Most of these large ships are earmarked for deployment on the Far East-Europe routes, which will exacerbate the oversupply afflicting the main East-West trades, Alphaliner said.

All of the top 20 ocean carriers, with the exception of Chile’s CSAV and Zim of Israel, are expected to take delivery of new container vessels in 2012. CSAV has chartered three ships due for delivery this year to Maersk.

Geneva-based Mediterranean Shipping will be the fastest growing carrier in 2012, with 21 ships of nearly 250,000 TEU of capacity set to join its fleet, followed by Maersk, which is also taking delivery of 21 ships with 133,000 TEU of capacity. Maersk expanded its capacity at twice the pace of the overall container shipping industry in 2011.