Treasury Secretary Dr. P.B. Jayasundera’s take
Finance Secretary Dr. P.B. Jayasundera (second from right) addresses the pre-2015 Budget Forum last week. Others from left are Standard Chartered Bank CEO Anirvan Ghosh Dastidar, Moderator Daily FT Editor Nisthar Cassim and MBA Alumni Association Deputy President Lalith Sumanasiri
Thank you to every CEO who expressed quite diverse views. Frankly, they are not new. The only good thing is that comparing to the last few sessions, the list is shorter. This is a reflection that you have a bigger role that what the Government has to do. Many issues pointed out is a reflection that you have to get your act together, get your industries and businesses organised, and position in a manner that each emerging sector could do its part.
From the Government’s perspective, I am proud matters are moving in the direction that we wanted. On numbers such as credit growth are falling from exceptionally-high levels, we need to find the right indicators based on a proper statistical base.
In the meantime, I have to mention the Government’s responsibility. Each and every one of you is talking from your own business perspective by looking at your own balance sheet, or your own industry. But as a person responsible to manage the overall macro-economy of the country, what we need to do is to ensure that all risk, which any economy tends to confront, are reduced and ensure the private sector is free from such vulnerabilities.
We have an economy that was open from 1937, but when some people express from a protectionist point of view, I feel nervous. What we need is competiveness and to address the existing issues and not those that are yet to come.
I have pointed out during my public addresses the issues. One is the labour market itself. The honeymoon Sri Lanka enjoyed from 1972 is now over since the country does not have high unemployment rates. The youth unemployment is drastically lower then what was when I was a youth. We do not have 2030% unemployment amongst youth. However, I do agree that the youth do not have the right attitude or the right enthusiasm to move into the new emerging areas. Individuals and well as their families probably still act in a fashion they did years ago. This is why I agree with the emphasis on skill education.
Whatever the industry you talk about, the future is skills, because we have small labour force that is engaged so their skill-orientation proposal is welcome. Also with regard to bringing back the youth from overseas, at some point we will have to bring them back. You will be amazed that the percentage of women going out as housemaids has dropped to 30%. It shows they are shifting their direction in seeking employment.
The second critical point I would like the CEO to keep in mind is that wage cost is going to increase. The simple reason for this is that the labour market is driven by global forces. Today labour is moving faster than capital since they have choices within the country. With the sophisticated infrastructure environment, people can choose their region, industry and sector. In that sense our labour cost will be reflected as international prices and you will get cheap labour only in the short-term in isolated pockets and they will be skill backward. By and large when the country sees a complete infrastructure network by 2017 to 2018, with the connectivity and other factors, labour will not be cheap. You need to be ready for that.
We are used to 40 years of deficit from the Government, but if your balance sheets went like this, none of you would have been here. You as responsible stakeholders can ask how we went on for 40 years that way. The country needs a much more decent and superior fiscal balance. If you have to give credit to this Government for one single achievement apart from ending the conflict, that is debt reduction. All the ministers with whom I have worked with never said we couldn’t do it. Now we are at a level that is below 5% and that was not easy to achieve. That landing from a high altitude has to be managed. It is a very stressful task and I like to see a smooth landing and for consolidation to come in. That is where all the problems are, the property development, credit growth, all are on one side.
On the other side is to help those who have kept their funds on long-term instruments to get used to the 2-3% interest. I cannot still reconcile a massive credit growth with 7-8% interest for deposits on one hand and still low interest rate on the other. That is the struggle banks are going through as they have raised many deposits at high cost and have to get used to low cost funding. It may take some time. I am not optimistic that it will happen in the first half of the year. I am more optimistic about credit growth since in the last couple of days we have got in $ 25 million foreign exchange. The Central Bank has space to that extent that they don’t come to banks. I am sensitive at the moment as to how we can take a further step to keep the deficit down. That is why everyone needs to get used to taxes, move away from concessions and live on a much more decent stage they have in terms of peace, not having internal handling charges, having a free port, FTA with India and China, and a set-up to expand their business.
I would also like to encourage those who suggest the setting up of a task force by the Government to follow the model of the apparel industry. They got together to form an association and they don’t disturb us. When they do it, it is for a good purpose; they want efficiency. I was proud to see intimate garments advertised yesterday, it shows how the sector has progressed.
The next branding is for knowledge. While the products we sell should be of value, none of the products can get their brands unless we keep highlighting that Sri Lanka is a knowledge economy and centre. That is the direction we want to go in and it is long term.
I also want to address that while there are anomalies in trade and tariffs, somebody’s input is somebody’s output. And in this Budget there is no exception. On one hand everyone wants free trade with India and China and on the other they don’t want any other product to come here. This will not work. They will also want to come here.
People should learn to not only price their products but also the resources and infrastructure used. In Sri Lanka the public roads are still free, environment is free, and Government is also free in a way. What is relevant is to understand the cost. We take Singapore, Malaysian, Hong Kong numbers and compare. We still have a rural economy; we still have 6-7% poverty and still have children not going to school. These are also topics for us.
I also want the business community to understand about the legislation. The issue on the Land Bill is a total misconception. I want to say that no prospective legislation has been imposed in Sri Lanka. The misperceptions should be corrected. Sri Lanka also has a national interest. The land is preserved here. Land cannot be owned without any restrictions and instructions have been issued from the day the Budget was introduced regarding the use of land. We have formulated the legislation after public consultation. I must say that I never had this much consultation with the private sector experts. There are certain concerns and transitional clauses that have been out in the Land Law. My worry is the delay in passing it. It is necessary for the private sector since they cannot invest in uncertain land. Right now it is in limbo. There will be much more uncertainty if this land law is not passed soon.
Everyone can lease land and I cannot see why everyone is worried when this can be done for 99 years. It is good for a serious investor. Apart from that, the land law requires 100% tax if a foreigner gets a transfer and is exempted only if there is a minimum investment. To minimise risk the land legislation recognises 7.5% to 15% in lease. In Hong Kong and Singapore, you have to pay much more. We have the structure in place and are getting a premium value. In land the one-off recovery must be there. That people will understand as we are giving land for 99 years.
The stock market worry is not understood by the genuine stock market. There are many plantation companies listed in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) that are subjected to land laws. I can’t see any concerns. Those interested in Sri Lanka must have a feeling about the use of land. The same concerns were there when terminal handling charges were introduced. All said shipping companies would leave, but none did.
While there are many political interest groups in the Government and the private sector, we have consolidated a much more solid private sector economy and if anybody thinks we don’t understand how to build a private sector globalised economy, it is a mistake.
Everyone needs to be more responsible. During the war I saw the need to have tax holidays, we were desperate then. Today investment is not a problem. In the recent past I have handled seven or eight large investment transactions that were straightforward and I didn’t see any problems in disposing land for a much higher price. I can’t see why a guy ready to put $ 100 million cannot pay 7.5% lease tax. I also cannot see why the market economy cannot reflect for their market pricing for land.
We will duly recognise all the proposals put forward.
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