Sri Lanka caught in crossfire of India–China maritime rivalry

By Chulanee Attanayake

Eastasiaforum.org: As strategic competition between China and India intensifies, Sri Lanka is facing a new geopolitical challenge that centres on the region’s cobalt reserve. A new dimension to Sino–Indian competition emerged when India applied to the Jamaica-based International Seabed Authority (ISA) to explore cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts in the Central Indian Ocean. 

In January 2024, India submitted an application to the ISA seeking permission to explore the cobalt-rich Afanasy Nikitin Seamount. But the ISA decided to put India’s application on hold because the area lies within Sri Lanka’s continental shelf.

Traditionally, India views the Indian Ocean as its backyard. But China’s increasing presence has raised security concerns, turning smaller nations like Sri Lanka into proxies in this rivalry. Since 2009, China has bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean by investing in strategic ports, deploying submarines for anti-piracy operations and sending survey and hydrographic vessels. 

The Chinese survey ship Xiang Yang Hong 03 has regularly surveyed the deep waters of the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea and the waters west of Indonesia since 2019. China has also deployed a fleet of underwater drones in the Indian Ocean to study the aquatic environment. 

While India’s interest in mineral exploration in the Indian Ocean is primarily driven by its national interest, China’s influence cannot be overlooked. As the fastest–growing major economy in the world, India is eager to secure a large share of the critical minerals market to support its growth, strengthen its tech industry and build a competitive value chain. Discovering and identifying mineral-rich areas are crucial for India, particularly as it aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2070. 

India perceives China’s research activities in the Indian Ocean as part of a broader effort to dominate the global critical minerals market. China currently controls 70% of the world’s cobalt and 60% of its lithium and manganese — minerals essential for the technologies driving the global economy. In response, New Delhi is determined to establish a strong presence in the region, secure its energy transition and counter Beijing’s influence. 

India’s recent diplomatic manoeuvres aim to gain significant influence in Sri Lanka’s maritime affairs. New Delhi has intensified its maritime cooperation with Colombo in recent years. In March 2022, the two nations signed agreements to enhance maritime security, including a $ 6 million grant for the Maritime Rescue Coordination Centre. This builds on their existing maritime collaboration, which includes joint military exercises, coordinated patrols in the Palk Strait and Gulf of Mannar, capacity building initiatives and a tripartite maritime cooperation pact with the Maldives.

These efforts have proven effective in several instances. During Cyclone Ockhi in 2017, India’s Coast Guard and Navy played a crucial role in rescuing Sri Lankan fishermen stranded at sea. In 2021, India provided vital assistance in firefighting and containment during the X-Press Pearl disaster off Sri Lanka’s coast.

But some challenges remain unresolved, particularly the ongoing dispute over fishing rights in the Palk Bay, where Indian fishermen have been accused of encroaching into Sri Lankan waters. Despite overall cooperation, this issue continues to strain relations. 

The dispute at hand between India and Sri Lanka stems from Sri Lanka’s attempt to extend its continental shelf, which led to India’s application for an exploration licence with the ISA being put on hold. In July 2024, in response to India’s application to the ISA, Sri Lanka urged the committee to refrain from accepting India’s request until the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf decides on its claim.  

For years, Sri Lanka has been attempting to extend its maritime limits. In 2009, Sri Lanka applied to extend its continental shelf beyond the 200 nautical mile limit, as permitted by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This application is still under consideration. India initially responded without objection in 2010. But in 2022, India withdrew its support, arguing that Sri Lanka’s claims would prejudice India’s rights over parts of the continental shelf and requested the commission ‘not to consider and qualify’ Sri Lanka’s submission. 

India’s initial lack of objection in 2010 and its subsequent change of stance in 2022 occurred against the backdrop of increased Chinese activities in the Indian Ocean and New Delhi’s concerns over Chinese research ships near Sri Lankan shores.

In January 2024, Sri Lanka implemented a one-year moratorium on foreign research vessels after India pressured its administration to stop Chinese research vessels from entering Sri Lankan waters in 2023. While the Sri Lankan cabinet has been drafting a policy on handling research vessels, the Foreign Minister recently hinted at lifting the moratorium, stressing that as a neutral and non-aligned country, Sri Lanka must apply consistent rules to all nations. This stance is likely influenced by developments concerning the seamount in question and Colombo’s own maritime claims.

If Colombo’s request for an extended continental shelf is successful, the Afanasy Nikitin Seamount — located just 650 miles from Sri Lanka — will fall within Sri Lanka’s maritime limits, potentially becoming a contentious area involving both India and China. In such a scenario, the big question is whether the small island nation can deter their influence and maintain control of the strategic location.

Sri Lanka cannot afford to clash with either India or China and must resolve potential maritime disputes through diplomatic means. But its leverage is limited by a significant power imbalance, given that Sri Lanka is economically dependent on both New Delhi and Beijing.

Sri Lanka’s non-aligned stance and traditional security approach face strains as it navigates the intense geopolitical rivalry in the Indian Ocean, particularly between India and China. As a small nation strategically located between the powers, Sri Lanka faces challenges in maintaining neutrality and protecting its maritime interests. The broader contest underscores the need for a rule-based maritime order and a careful balancing of national interests. 

Chulanee Attanayake is a non-resident Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore, and Sessional Lecturer and PhD Scholar at Swinburne University of Technology, Australia. (Source: https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/09/19/sri-lanka-caught-in-the-crossfire-of-india-china-maritime-rivalry/