Thursday Jan 30, 2025
Thursday Jan 30, 2025
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Who will join Temba Bavuma in race to WTC final (from left): Temba Bavuma, Pat Cummins, Rohit Sharma, and Dhananjaya de Silva
By Sa’adi Thawfeeq
Australia’s fantastic win by 184 runs against India in the fourth Test played at the Melbourne has once again opened up hopes for teams that thought that they were out of contention in the race to clinch the last place for the ICC World Test Championship final at Lord’s 2025.
With South Africa having already qualified following their nail-biting two-wicket win against Pakistan in the first Test at the Centurion, the battle for the second spot was between Australia and India at the start of the Melbourne Test.
But following that result which has given Australia a 2-1 lead in the five-match series with one to play starting at Sydney on 3 January, Sri Lanka who seemed out of contention after their 2-0 loss to South Africa have somewhat come into the frame once again and emerged as the dark horse.
Although Sri Lanka’s chances look slimmer than Australia and India, they yet have a chance to sneak into the Lord’s final provided the Sydney Test ends in a draw and they beat Australia 2-0 at home later this month at their most favoured venue Galle.
If that happens, Sri Lanka who lie currently 5th with 45.45 percentage points will boost their tally to 53.85 pushing them above Australia (53.51) and India (51.75). New Zealand who lie 4th (48.21) are out of contention as they have completed all their matches.
If India wins at Sydney, they will knock Sri Lanka out of the race. Australia will also finish ahead of Sri Lanka if they beat India at Sydney. So for Sri Lanka to qualify they must first hope for a draw at Sydney, and then try and beat Australia twice.
Beating Australia in back to back Tests even under their own conditions is not an easy task for Sri Lanka. The last series played here in 2022 saw Sri Lanka and Australia share the two-match Test series 1-all despite both Tests being played at Galle.
If Australia were to lose in Sydney, they would need one win in Sri Lanka to qualify. A 1-1 draw in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney would leave Australia on 57.02 to India’s 55.26. If Australia draw both Tests in Sri Lanka after losing in Sydney, India and Australia will be level on 55.26, but India will qualify on the basis of having won more series in the 2023-25 WTC cycle. For India to stay in contention they must win at Sydney.
