South Africa’s loss opens up possibility for Sri Lanka

 Sri Lanka’s last test match was against Pakistan at Galle in July which they won by 246 runs

By Sa’adi Thawfeeq

Australia’s dominating win over South Africa in Melbourne in the second test has improved Sri Lanka’s chances of making an inaugural appearance in the ICC World Test Championship without even playing a match.

For Sri Lanka to make it count they will have to win both their remaining two Test matches against New Zealand at Christchurch from 9-13 March and 17-21 March at Wellington, regardless of other results between now and next year’s final.

It is a big ask for Sri Lanka to beat New Zealand twice in one series, as past records show they have won just two tests in 19 attempts, the last one coming in 2006 in Wellington when they won by 217 runs. Since then, Sri Lanka has been to New Zealand thrice and lost all three series, the last occasion being in 2018-19.

Sri Lanka’s last test series was in July when they drew one-all with Pakistan. Their next test series in New Zealand will take place after a gap of eight months, which is fairly a long break for any nation to play a test match.

Sri Lanka are currently placed third with a percentage of 53.33 and maximum points in New Zealand would take them to 61.1%. Their hopes of making it to the final then would depend on Australia continuing their winning ways.

Australia in the meanwhile, is on course to feature in their first-ever ICC World Test Championship final. Their innings win over South Africa has consolidated their position at the top of the ICC World Test Championship and put them in the box seat after narrowly missing out the last time.

Australia has one more match against the Proteas in Sydney which they will be confident of winning and making a 3-0 sweep of the series going on their current form. They will then travel to India for four tests in February-March next year. As things stand, Australia is likely to feature in their first WTC Final irrespective of the result.

India and New Zealand figured in the final last year at Southampton with New Zealand coming up trumps by eight wickets.

India is currently second in the standings with 58.92 points and have a four-test series at home with pace setters Australia to make back-to-back appearances in the World Test Championship final. For that they will need to produce some good results. If they win all four tests against Australia the best possible finish, they can get is 68.06%.

South Africa, on the other hand, have fallen off from second to fourth spot after making a bright start to their WTC 21-23 campaign. Prior to the start of the three-test series in Australia, they were in the top two of the World Test Championship standings, but two heavy defeats in the first two tests finds them fall two places down in the table with a percentage of 50.

South Africa are not out of the reckoning, but they will need to win all their remaining games starting with the third and final test against Australia and the two-home test against West Indies in February-March. If they win all their remaining matches the best possible percentage finish South Africa can get is 60%.   

Other possible candidates who probably could make the final are sixth placed West Indies and seventh placed Pakistan. But it’s a long shot as the maximum possible percentage West Indies can finish on is 50% and Pakistan 47.62%. West Indies have two away tests against South Africa and Pakistan two home tests against New Zealand (which is currently on).

The rest of the teams are all out of contention to make it to the final and that includes New Zealand who won’t be able to defend the World Test Championship mace they won at Southampton last year.