Sri Lanka holds key to South Africa’s cricket fortunes

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Miniseries will show which is world’s top Test team, South Africa or Australia

Sri Lanka’s Angelo Mathews, seen in action during the second Test at Headingley where he scored 160 in the second innings against England last month. Zuma Press

Wall Street Journal: Although it’s only a two-game encounter, the forthcoming Test series to be played in Sri Lanka should give us a big clue which side, South Africa or Australia, is likely to be the dominant force in Test cricket over the next few years. Australia isn’t even playing in it, but South Africa will be tested to the limits by a resurgent Sri Lanka fresh from its first-ever series victory in England. Not only will the visitors be fielding a new-look batting lineup shorn of two of its greatest stars, but the team’s greatest strength, its fast bowling, faces two of the most likely pitches in the world to draw its sting. Those pitches will be at Galle International Stadium from 16 July and at Colombo’s Sinhalese Sports Club from 24 July, after a three-match One-Day International series. They will be Sri Lanka’s first home Tests since Bangladesh visited in March 2013, and the first time South Africa has played Tests on the island since 2006. The SSC is fairly reliably a road, sapping the life out of all bowlers, but particularly seamers, while Galle often takes a great deal of spin, but really could be anything. The previous two Tests at Galle – located by the sea near an imposing fort – give a flavour of the place, which is one of the sport’s more majestic settings. Last year Bangladesh managed its record score, a first-innings 638, in a high-scoring draw during which only 19 wickets fell, at a cost of about 85 each; the year before New Zealand was spun out by Rangana Herath, who took 11 wickets, for 221 and 118. Given those pitches, the biggest challenge for South Africa, recently knocked off top spot in the world rankings after a 2-1 home loss to Australia, lies in the selection of what ought to be the more settled part of its lineup, its bowlers.

Tough selection calls

To play in conditions more likely to help spin than seam, the South African selectors have picked a squad containing five seamers and only two front-line spinners. One of those spinners, Imran Tahir, will certainly play; now finding his feet in international cricket, he could be a key figure in the series. The selectors will be tempted to pick the other, too. South Africa doesn’t produce many mystery spinners – only really the sui generis Paul Adams – but off-spinner Dane Piedt, the top wicket-taker in last season’s domestic first-class competition, has built his reputation on a range of variations. Picking both Tahir and Piedt, however, will require the team to either go in with just two seamers – and it could be a tough call to drop Morne Morkel – or to lengthen the tail by picking three, with Vernon Philander then likely to bat at seven. The quality of JP Duminy as a support spinner from among the batsmen could also cost Peidt a place, however, with the full scary seam lineup of Morkel, Philander and Dale Steyn joining Tahir. The flux in the South African batting order has nothing to do with conditions; instead it’s prompted by the retirements of the incomparable Jacques Kallis and Graeme Smith. Dean Elgar, previously employed in the middle order, is likely to take Smith’s position as opener, meaning that the final batting place, assuming a four-man bowling attack, will be between Quinton de Kock and the other newcomer in the squad, accumulative left-hander Stiaan van Zyl. But the spotlight will fall most not on the men in line to replace Smith as a batsman, but on the man replacing him as captain, Hashim Amla. He was an outsider for the job; ODI skipper AB de Villiers appeared to be Smith’s anointed successor, while Duminy and Faf du Plessis were also considered. The appointment frees up de Villiers to continue as wicketkeeper – trying to combine both roles and remain the side’s top batsman might have been too much – but it also puts a man universally respected in the game in charge. Amla is someone whose own technique should make him sympathetic to the unorthodox, whose calm personality should make him an ideal on-field leader and shepherd of young players, and who is also a player of sufficient stature not to be overawed or overshadowed by following a captain of Smith’s extraordinary credentials. Not that the Sri Lankan captain Amla will face is doing badly. Angelo Mathews notched up 306 runs at 76.50 with two centuries in the two-Test, 1-0 win over England, making the series’ most decisive contribution with his crunching 160 in the second innings of the second Test, at Headingley.

Sri Lanka firm favourites

Along with Mathews, Kaushal Silva, successfully retooled as an opener, is the biggest recent plus for the team. The presence of the reliably superb Kumar Sangakkara and the still fitfully brilliant Mahela Jayawardene makes it less critical that none of Dimuth Karunaratne, Lahiru Thirimanne or Dinesh Chandimal has yet to fully establish himself in the team. That will change before very long, however. In Shaminda Eranga, Sri Lanka seems finally to have found its first reliable Test quick since Chaminda Vaas retired in 2009, but quicks won’t be anything like so important at home as they were in England. Sri Lanka’s leading spinner, Herath, is likely to be as pivotal to the series as Tahir, but the identity of the side’s second spinner is unclear. Sri Lanka has tended to field an uncharacteristically seam-dominated attack in the past year, even in such spin-friendly locations as Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates. With the legality of Sachitra Senanayake’s action still being investigated by cricket’s authorities, Ajantha Mendis, full of variations but without much loop and an underperformer in his short Test career, could be favourite for a recall. In the three limited-overs games before the Tests, Sri Lanka starts as firm favourite. With the World Cup just over seven months away, a side filled with hitting power and boosted by the inclusion of two fine seamers, Lasith Malinga and Nuwan Kulasekara, the former retired from Tests and the latter usually deemed not penetrative enough for them, looks a useful bet to add one-day cricket’s ultimate crown to its Asia Cup and World Twenty20 triumphs.But it’s a measure of how calm, settled and in control of its game this Sri Lanka side looks at the moment that a Test series against South Africa, who had started to look almost invincible until quite recently, could just as easily go with the hosts as against them.