Leading candidates’ economic experts present competing visions for Sri Lanka’s future

The scene at the first-ever debate on the way forward for Sri Lanka between economic experts of four leading Presidential candidates organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce at the BMICH yesterday. From left: NPP’s Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma, SLPP’s Prof. Ranjith Bandara, SJB’s Dr. Harsha de Silva, and Shehan Semasinghe for President Ranil Wickremesinghe. Moderators Ceylon Chamber Chairman Duminda Hulangamuwa and Board Member Kasturi Chellaraja are on right – Pic by Lasantha Kumara 

By Charumini de Silva

In the lead-up to the Presidential election, economic policy experts nominated by the four main leading candidates yesterday presented competing visions for Sri Lanka’s way forward at the first-ever debate organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce.

The event titled, “Defining the Vision – THE Debate” featured Shehan Semasinghe for President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Dr. Harsha de Silva for Sajith Premadasa, Dr. Harshana Suriyapperuma for Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Prof. Ranjith Bandara for Namal Rajapaksa.

Held at the BMICH before a packed audience of business leaders and professionals to academics and civil society members, the debate provided insights into each candidate’s economic vision, offering voters a clear picture of the policies and reforms they may endorse.

The session included three rounds. 

The first round allowed each speaker to present their vision, followed by the second round where each was asked a question by the moderators – Ceylon Chamber Chairman Duminda Hulangamuwa and Board Member Kasturi Chellaraja. In the final round, each was allowed to ask one or two questions from the representatives for a robust exchange of ideas and policy critiques.

People must decide whether to continue this growth or risk a decline 

Representing independent candidate Wickremesinghe, Semasinghe outlined the Government’s progress in stabilising the economy after the severe downturn in 2022. 

“The country had to face an economic standstill due to the shortage of foreign exchange, which led to widespread shortages of essential goods and a severe impact on daily life,” he said.

He highlighted the Government’s ambitious three-phase reform agenda aimed at economic recovery and growth.

“Phase I launched in April 2022 focused on addressing the immediate foreign exchange crisis, which helped reduce fuel queues, improve the availability of essential items, shorten power cuts and resume food production. Cash transfers to vulnerable communities were also increased to prevent a major food crisis,” he explained.

Semasinghe said the Phase II which concentrated on stabilising the economy by addressing the root causes of macroeconomic vulnerabilities, introduced comprehensive reforms in fiscal and monetary policies, State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the financial sector. “As a result the country moved from a primary Budget deficit of 5.7% of GDP in 2021 to a surplus of 0.6% in 2023. Inflation also dropped significantly and key economic indicators such as foreign reserves and the exchange rate showed marked improvement,” he added.

Despite these successes, he acknowledged the challenges still facing the country, including increased poverty levels, largely attributed to the economic crisis and the impact of COVID pandemic.

“The Government has expanded the welfare programs, increasing cash transfers to poor households and vulnerable groups such as elderly, people with disabilities and kidney patients,” he said.

Semasinghe also emphasised the importance of new legislation passed over the past two years including the Central Bank Act, Public Financial Management Act, Public Debt Management Act, Economic Transformation Act and the Anti-Corruption Act. He said these laws aim to ensure discipline and combat corruptions which are critical for sustainable economic growth.

As Sri Lanka prepares for Presidential elections, Semasinghe underscored the importance of continuing on the path of economic recovery.

He expressed confidence in the current trajectory, calling on the people to support policies that will promote further growth and stability.

“We are on the right path and the economy is strengthening daily. The people must decide whether to continue this growth or risk a decline. We have gathered momentum on the confidence of the economy. So it is up to the people of Sri Lanka to decide whether we take this growth forward, or we decide otherwise. The assurance we can give you is that the economy is on the right path. The critical point on 21 September is that people have to decide on the economy,” Semasinghe said.People must decide whether to continue this growth or risk a decline

Win for all Sri Lankans

Representing SJB candidate Premadasa, Dr. de Silva outlined his party’s 10-point comprehensive plan to steer Sri Lanka towards sustainable economic growth, centred on transparency, accountability and inclusive development.

He asserted the party’s commitment to a social market economy that balances economic freedom with equity, ensuring that all Sri Lankans benefit from the country’s progress.

“In short, our model is a synthesis of economic freedom, the belief in markets and economic justice, the belief in equity and everybody gets a piece of the pie,” he said.

Dr. de Silva presented a detailed 10-point plan structured around five pillars, starting with transparency and accountability. He stressed the importance of establishing an independent public prosecutor to eliminate conflicts of interest in corruption cases involving the Attorney General’s office. The plan also includes introducing public procurement laws, e-procurement platforms, asset recovery regulations and enhancing transparency in public financial management.

His second pillar focuses on economic stabilisation and outlined measures to manage the debt crisis, continue negotiations and engage with the IMF to amend certain terms while maintaining debt sustainability. He said that the Aswesuma program will continue temporarily, with plans to increase cash transfer amounts for the most vulnerable groups.

He also emphasised the importance of incentivising tradable export growth to break the cycle of economic crises and achieve high growth.

“Reforms should not come at the cost of people’s well-being. Our objective is a win for all Sri Lankans. We will continue the path of recovery, acknowledge the positives and make necessary changes to ensure that economic growth benefits everyone, not just a select few,” Dr. de Silva said.

Dr. de Silva emphasised the importance of maintaining the independence of the Central Bank ensuring it remains free from political interference in setting interest rates. The plan also targets revenue consolidation, aiming to increase revenue to 15.4% of GDP by 2027-2029 through digitalisation, expanding the tax base and improving compliance.

“RAMIS, the ASYCUDA, Excise and all those things will be looked at very seriously, and we will also create a unified Revenue Authority and a registration of taxpayers,” he added.

The third pillar focuses on incentivising growth from a modest 3% to higher levels necessary for long term development.

Dr. de Silva called for removing market interventions, enhancing productivity and reforming trade and investment policies. He stressed the need to modernise agriculture, reduce para tariffs and connect to global production networks.

Breaking monopolies in sectors like rice and improving access to land were also highlighted as priorities.

The fourth pillar addresses public sector management and digitalisation, which includes reforms in energy and utilities, prioritising renewable energy and promoting a digital public infrastructure to increase efficiency across Government services.

Dr. de Silva cited the social safety net as the final pillar to support the seven million people living in poverty. He proposed a model similar to Jana Saviya, where financial support is tied to work, aiming to empower individuals rather than simply providing handouts.

He also said that the Aswesuma program will continue temporarily, with plans to increase cash transfer amounts for the most vulnerable groups.

Dr. de Silva emphasised the importance of incentivising tradable export growth to break the cycle of economic crises and achieve high growth.

“Economic reforms do not come at the cost of people’s well-being. Our objective is a win for all Sri Lankans. We will continue the path of recovery, acknowledge the positives and make necessary changes to ensure that economic growth benefits everyone, not just a select few,” Dr. de Silva said.

Cultural shift in political landscape

Representing Dissanayake, Dr. Suriyapperuma in a critique of the current political and economic climate called for a significant cultural change, insisting on the need for accountability, transparency and an end to corruption in governance.

He raised concerns over the credibility of existing political leaders and their repeated failure to deliver on promises, highlighting the urgent need for a shift in the country’s approach to leadership and governance.

He pointed to the past experiences of empty promises and unfulfilled pledges, stating that the root causes lies in the implementation of policies.

“Between 2015 and 2022, the Government borrowed Rs. 8 trillion for project loans of which 75% remains unaccounted for,” he revealed citing a statement from the Auditor General.

He argued that this lack of accountability is a clear indicator of the systemic corruption and mismanagement within the current political framework.

“It is about the credibility of the political leaders to deliver what they preach,” Dr. Suriyapperuma stated, urging a shift away from the existing culture of unfulfilled promises and mismanagement.

He asked whether failed politicians, who have consistently overspent and under-delivers, should be trusted with the country’s future again.

“We need a profound change in political culture, one that would empower State officials to stand by their principles rather than succumbing to political pressure,” he stressed.

Dr. Suriyapperuma criticised the Central Bank’s excessive money printing, questioning the absence of independent decision-making within the Monetary Board. “State officials should stand up for what they truly believe, not just be lip servants to politicians,” he asserted, calling for a culture where integrity and independence are valued and upheld.

Dr. Suriyapperuma condemned the current political practices, referencing failed projects and unfulfilled promises that were once touted as transformative initiatives. He cites examples like the promised production of Volkswagen cars in Sri Lanka and the distribution of Google balloons for free internet, both of which never materialised.

He said that instead of implementing meaningful reforms, politicians continue to rely on empty rhetoric and handouts to maintain their support base.

Dr. Suriyapperuma outlined his party’s vision, which focuses on purpose-driven policies, clean politics, accountability, governance and the rule of law.

He stressed that his party is committed to establishing a Government with zero tolerance for corruption, ensuring a level playing field for businesses and promoting social equity and inclusion.

“We need a leadership that prioritises the rule of law, applies the same laws equally to everyone and creates a business environment free from corruption. If elected, we will ensure that the Government would act as a facilitator, providing necessary resources for businesses to reach their full potential, supported by a wave of digitalisation to connect businesses and individuals,” Dr. Suriyapperuma said.

Doubling economy in 10 years

Representing Rajapaksa, Prof. Bandara gave a run down on an economic vision aimed at doubling the economy from $ 90 billion to $ 180 billion within a decade. He emphasised a two-part strategy focusing on immediate relief package and a sustainable integrated growth plan built on the foundational principles of “Mahinda Chinthanaya”.

“Our vision is outcome oriented,” Prof. Bandara stated, detailing a strategy that seeks to achieve an average annual GDP growth of 7% and increase the per capita income from $ 4,000 to $ 8,000 over 10 years.

The plan is anchored on a revised, modernised and structured version of the Mahinda Chinthanaya framework, aiming to address current economic challenges while enhancing future growth prospects.

“The first component of the strategy involves an immediate relief package designed to provide quick support across various sectors. These include; ensuring food security for all, providing relief for utility bills, offering affordable fertiliser to boost agriculture productivity, creating 100,000 new jobs, financially empowering youth through targeted programs, strengthening public servants and ensuring uninterrupted medical supplies, fast-tracking investment opportunities, introducing immediate tax relief, implementing efficient public service mechanisms, exploring State balance sheet improvements for financial security and supporting research for commercialisation,” he outlined.

The second component of the party’s vision according to Prof. Bandara involves a sustainable economic growth plan structured around four pillars of prioritising the State, innovation, investment and freedom.

“It is important to protect the national interest and ensure economic sustainability by optimising public services. This would support the other three pillars and drive growth,” he added.

He said the innovation pillar focuses on boosting State efficiency and avoiding the sale of public enterprises. Additionally, he said infrastructure developments will also play a crucial role in supporting these initiatives.

In terms of the freedom pillar, Prof. Bandara identified four key areas of economic freedom, political freedom, cultural freedom and religious freedom.

He stressed that the policy framework is designed to address immediate economic issues and propel Sri Lanka to the next level of development.

“There are no fairy tales included. This is a very simple, yet realistic and doable vision,” Prof. Bandara said.