Divided opinion on Sri Lanka’s post-COVID tourism recovery timeline

By Charumini de Silva

Sri Lanka Tourism Chairperson Kimarli Fernando

McKinsey & Company Partner Steve Saxon

Opinion on the probable timeline of revival of post-COVID tourism was divided when the issue came under discussion last week at the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce Sri Lanka Economic Summit.

Speaking at the session titled ‘Survival to recovery: Reviving tourism inflows’, Sri Lanka Tourism Chairperson Kimarli Fernando expressed confidence that the country will get back to 50% of its pre-pandemic 2018 numbers by next year, whilst McKinsey & Company Partner Steve Saxon said the country could reach to only 2019 levels by 2024.

“Sri Lanka did not go for mass tourism, despite regional competition absorbing 40 million tourists per annum. We got around 200,000 tourists on average per month in 2018, and in November we received over 40,000 travelers,” Fernando said. “The numbers show that Sri Lanka can land around 100,000 monthly given the gradual recovery in global travel,” she continued, disagreeing with the presentation made by McKinsey.

She also added that Sri Lanka is supported by Indian tourists, which is also the largest tourist source market for the country in the first 11 months. She outlined that following the successful vaccination drive they were rolling out aggressive promotion initiatives with foreign missions, whilst seeking support from outbound operators and strengthening connectivity with airlines to operate into Sri Lanka. Additionally, Fernando stressed: “Sri Lanka can achieve what we want. We have always focused on quality over quantity.”

As per McKinsey projections, global travel demand is likely to recover by 2022 driven by leisure and business lags. However, Sri Lanka will see a slow recovery for leisure travel, due to limited domestic market, reliance on long-haul and China’s cautious border opening. Saxon said: “We project Sri Lanka to reach 2019 levels by 2024, but not 2018 numbers.”

In 2018, Sri Lanka recorded the highest tourist arrivals of 2.3 million. According to the CCC’s poll results from the participants, 91% voted for partial revival in the tourism industry in 2022, whereas 66% expect it in the leisure sub-category and 19% on wellness.

Saxon recommended four key factors for faster recovery, and it includes, ensure simple, easy and well communicated entry requirements; develop domestic segments; evolve on other markets till China is ready to return; and shift marketing to countries with more open travel regimes and work with airlines for connectivity. 

“Travel is shifting to a less frequent, high ticket size model versus the loyalty-based model of the past,” Saxon said, adding Sri Lanka could benefit from the new shift as they are likely to spend much more and travel longer on the long-haul holidays.