The path ahead after the poll

Vote wisely, and well then, with an eye on the general elections to follow – Pic by Shehan Gunasekara

A radical point has been made often enough: It is an election like no other in our nation’s history.

On one hand, the first election since the flaring up and fading away of the Aragalaya. So Sri Lanka’s most vocal demographic’s premier opportunity to press the case again. There is so much at stake for all those representative stakeholders who agitated for ‘system change’.

On the other hand, one last stand for the traditional parties who are an entrenched part of the system to fight to retain their bastions of influence and privilege. For them too, those powerful elites who have enjoyed state capture at the expense of the poor, average citizens and others marginalised in many ways, so much is at stake...

Today there is no time to think too much. There was a time for that, and it was all our yesterdays leading up to that box inside this polling booth. 

But in case you’ve postponed the imperative to peruse those all-important manifestoes, perhaps this brief will serve as a poor substitute for what could or should have been a more diligent application to taking one’s franchise seriously.

Here it is now – with a caveat: Arguably, all voters taking the plunge today are biased. In the case of yours truly, by a particular political temperament, a journalistic rather than academic personality, and like you a character shaped by our recent shared suffering. 

So read with caution. Then vote wisely and well, and may Sri Lanka survive and thrive beyond our unique idiosyncrasies. Could be supplemented by a useful analysis of the practicability of the three leading candidates’ election manifestoes as monitored by Verité Research (https://manthri.lk/en/presidential-election-manifesto-2024).

Ranil Wickremesinghe

A vote for: Continuity. Stability. Economic reforms. The neoliberal agenda. Internationalism.

A vote against: Change. Social justice. Government’s duty to respect the separation of powers.

Strengths: Previous experience in several governments and holding the highest political offices.

Weaknesses: Apathy towards – some may argue complicity in – several ‘scams’ under his watch. 

Opportunities: To postpone severe national fallout from postponed sovereign debt repayments. 

Threats: To entrench a unitary political culture that hamstrung democracy by dint of corruption.

Ghost in the past: His alleged role in the excessive crackdowns of the UNP on two insurgencies. 

Greatest challenge: To shake the monkey of the previous regime off his back; end strangleholds.

The way forward: Use his presidency to build up the UNP again. Counter the SLPP in the House.  

Sajith Premadasa

A vote for: A social democratic approach to continuity, stability, etc. ‘Reformed’ neoliberalism.

A vote against: Any organic change. Any muscular hope of ridding the state of elite capture.

Strengths: A legacy of speaking truth to power in the strongest parliamentary traditions.

Weaknesses: The tendency to play clown prince to make a larger, meaningful political point.

Opportunities: To mount a serious challenge to the entrenched regime at the next general polls.

Threats: The very similar political DNA in a party’s veins as UNP/SLPP threatens transparency.

Greatest challenge: To move out of the shadow of his paterfamilias and develop his own vision.

Ghost in the past: The alleged role of his father’s party’s henchmen in cracking down on dissent.

The way forward: If he wins the election, being prepared to work with a fuller SLPP/NPP House.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake

A vote for: The possibility of systemic change, the potential for social justice to eventuate.

A vote against: Comfort zones. The security of ‘the known devil’. Complicity in corruption.

Strengths: A not very visible panoply of professionals with intellectual capacity to govern.

Weaknesses: A woeful lack of experience underscored by repeated prez election failures.

Opportunities: To critically engage the elite capture of the state by powerful vested interests.

Threats: The danger of too radical an approach to fiscal management of the economy, debt &c.

Ghost in the past: Two violent insurrections by the NPP coalition’s principal player: the JVP.

Greatest challenge: To erase the memory of his party’s violent past and win wider acceptance. 

The way forward: Contain the radical elements of his coalition to ensure ‘peace with justice’.

NOTE... Independents have not been considered for reasons of space as well as larger significance – This doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t play a role in future elections.

Conventional wisdom: Sri Lanka needs to postpone the demands of social justice for yet another electoral cycle, say conservatives and the cautious. After all, when we’re safely beyond the rapids of enforced yet much needed economic reforms and re-negotiated debt repayment in 2028, we can aspire to being the culprits of past crimes and corruption to book under cleaner regimes.  

Devil’s advocate: The time for ‘systemic change’ is long past... Let’s take the plunge now! After all, it’s a calculated risk worth taking. And there is no hope of change/course-correction from ‘the usual suspects’ whose influence spans the major mainstream parties and comprises a uniculture.

Word to the wiser: Can a single election solve all of a country’s most pressing problems? Vote wisely, and well then, with an eye on the general elections to follow. After all, the outcome of the Presidential poll will not only affect the swing of parliamentary elections but set the tone for it. 

| Editor-at-large of LMD | ‘Change, Social Justice & Risk’ v. ‘Continuity, Stability, Same Old Stuff’|